BC: TOO DOG-GONE LATE .. OR IS IT ??
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A National Energy Policy to facilitate the transition
from Fossil Fuels to a Sustainable Energy Future
"Houston we have a problem" ..
And nobody wants to talk about it ..
Our entire modern society and present population
has been enabled and sustained by our ability to
exploit what have been an abundant supply of cheap
and energy dense fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas)
Numerous studies conclude that in the case of oil that
we've all ready exploited the bulk of the cheap ( easy
to extract ) high quality ( easy to process ) resource
and that what remains ( 1000 trillion barrels ? ) will be
more costly to extract and process into useable fuels ..
Additionally, current world demand of +84 mbpd is at or
exceeds our present production capabilities .. World
demand is further expected to grow by +1.5% per annum
requiring a potentially unobtainable 120 mbpd by 2025 ..
We consume 30.5 Billion barrels per year and will have
used the next ( and only ) trillion barrels remaining
by 2038 assuming no growth in production or demand ..
There are vast, huge, enormous fossil fuel resources
in coal, tar sands, oil shales, heavy oils, natural gas
numbering in the trillions of barrels .. so why worry ??
Because they just can't 'scale' to 84 mbpd no matter how
much money we throw at them .. case in point Canadian
Tar Sands after an additional $50 Billion investment
are projected to increase from 1.2 mbpd to 3 mbpd by 2020
or 3.5% of current global consumption .. More money
and lesser conversion efficiencies ( ie read daily
production ) exist for coal to liquids, oil shale
processing, and heavy oils .. To complicate matters
further, the 'easy' stuff ie Light sweet crude is just
about to go into a relentless global production decline ..
So in the short term we're facing a transportation
liquid fuels supply crunch and an eventual need to transition
all forms of energy away from our finite fossil fuels ..
If we start immediately I think we can attain this energy
sufficient sustainable future without massive economic and
social dislocations .. Here's a ( my ) plan ..
National Grid ..
New Nukes Gen III and Gen IV = 60%
Clean Coal = 20%
Renewables = 20%
New Nukes would be AP-1000 PWRs and Pebble Bed and
other HTGRs characterized by operator and criticality
proof design parameters .. Development of breeder
technology MOX and MSBR to process existing fission plant
waste streams into useable fuels with the ultimate goal
of upgrading to fusion reactors assuming the technology
is eventually developed .. at least we've bought the time ..
Global warming issues argue for eventual phase-out of
base-load central coal power plants for electrical generation;
the resource would be better utilized as a source of CBM,
CTL and eventually as a thorium feedstock for our nukes ..
Base load renewables would entail massive buildouts for
wind, solar-thermal, geothermal, hydro, and tidal where
cost effective ..
How does this address the transportation fuels crisis ??
In my view, we've got to deal with that in the short term
with efficiency ie gas and diesel hybrids, PHEVs and
eventually EVs for the bulk of our surface transport fuel
needs; supplemented by bio-fuels where practicable ie used
as an oxygenator in traditional fuels and used more extensively
where produced ie the corn and soybean belts and for
agricultural fuel needs .. CTL and GTL plus importation
from Canada of tar sands fuels will buy time for the
eventual transition to an all electric transportation
future, though I don't know what we'll be fueling our
jets with <g> ..
Personal energy footprint initiatives .. Federal and
local government incentives to foster demand destruction
and efficiency; use of CFLs, improved insulation techniques,
radiant barriers, energy efficient appliances, ground
source heat pumps .. A unified national program paying
homeowners their current market rate per kwh for energy
produced via renewable energy means ie PV,wind,hydro,
bio-mass etc .. Tighten CAFE standards for all vehicles ..
Provide appropriate incentives for the manufacturer and
purchaser of fuel efficient vehicles across all vehicle
classes .. Institute a national consumption tax on all
fuels .. the more you use the more you pay .. Use the
fuel tax revenues to fund the efficiency programs .. |
