Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS)

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To: Lance Bredvold who wrote (157)	2/8/2006 6:40:38 PM
From: Lance Bredvold	of 195

I do feel rather optimistic about the outlook for ACLS with all the predictions that they will be taking share. The only difficulty is that they have been saying that for all the years I've been owning them, and in the HD presentation they finally conceded that they had actually lost share while they did not have product to sell in the single wafer line. Now they say they'll get back to the share they had in the early 90's. Yet the quote I copied for my first post today does not sound like they are predicting any significant profits or even much in the way of increased revenues. 90-100mm in the first quarter with higher than normal R&D and lower than normal margins on the newer designs leads to another breakeven quarter. I've been waiting for some profit for a while now and one of the analysts questioned why, if they had brought the breakeven level down to $90mm quarterly and were predicting 90-100 in Q1, they were not showing a profit. Steve slid around that by suggesting R&D was high though he had earlier said it would not change much. I guess it's OK with me as I would not expect much of a profit from that last $5mm or so spread over 101mm shares. 1 or 2 cents maybe and that wouldn't bring my valuation up much. I am comforted that we are about breaking even at this level of sales. The acquisition of Diamond Semiconductor was a complete surprise to me--what were they? A design house which worked for ACLS as well as Varian? Someone seemed to suggest that they had implanter patents which ACLS was buying (and I do appreciate that the purchase was expensed--we have plenty of "other" on the balance sheet already). Plus some people apparently who are now employees? $3mm for Diamond including a million or so for more phase out of the NJ plant. One of the sets of numbers which sort of threw me was when someone said they were predicting over 10% of revenues in 06 would be Optima products. Steve said Optima sales would be $60 to $70mm in 06. But then that would make total sales at least $700mm and I did not hear anything that suggested those levels for ACLS without SEN. I guess the explanation would be that the $60 to $70 won't actually turn into revenue. But isn't that way more complex than necessary? I do understand that they ship units especially early in a design cycle which are not accepted for 6 months or longer as they keep working to tweak the machine on the fab floor. And I actually like the idea of their being conservative in recognizing the sale and the revenue. But still they list them as new orders and new system bookings, but not revenue or sales--oof da. Too complex for me to keep up with. Best L.

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