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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (129361)	2/9/2006 11:17:40 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) of 209892

IMO people tend to put this backwards: it's not the case that the US dollar will lose Reserve status because of balance of payments deficits, rather, the US dollar is the Reserve currency of choice precisly because the US runs such powerful balance of payments deficit. Lets umcomplicate this .... You have a Trinket .... I have a dollar ..... Will you will exchange your trinket for my dollar .....? OK .... fair exchange .... You have a Trinket .... same trinket .... I have an atom of Oxygen ..... do you want to exchange ........? If the dollar gets to Oxygen level would you still want to exchange ....? note: I really don't care what your answer is .... China and India have already decided .... but you won't know this unless you know the make up of their current reserves ..... So - what is the makeup of their current reserves? And what are they doing different in 2006? btw - what ever the new currency (mix) the YEN will be there ... but your right ... its strength is is largely hinged to exporting to us .... and as we (silently) devalue ... their getting oxygen .... regards, John McCarthy

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