Arun, my long and jaded experience is that "experts", whether scientific or other, have got feet of clay. Some of them are even outright liars who talk their book.
It always pays to check their data and start from first principles. The first thing they do is hide their data and get as offended and angry as a Moslem if you want to look behind the screen. [Not that all Moslems are angry, some of them are friendly and reasonable I suppose, though you wouldn't think it judging by their rabid madness as seen on tv].
I'm not surprised the Arctic ice is melting. I suppose that process started 10,000 years ago when the last glaciation started to end and has continued ever since, gradually whittling the ice cover away, leaving Greenland, the Arctic and the ice cap still frozen though melting.
I can't really get excited about the Arctic ice melting. I don't think that that demonstrates that we need to stop burning coal, oil and gas. I think we should stop burning so much of it, but not to stop the Arctic ice melting.
I think burning oil, coal and gas is largely a cultural phenomenon, like dancing naked around a fire.
I notice that I don't burn much of it these days, though I'm still prone to getting on a 747 to go somewhere else and charge around in the car now and then, thinking that I'll be happier where I'm not.
Living in Ottawa is nuts, for example, and is a cultural phenomenon, not a survival one. It would be much more pleasant for those people to live in a more equable climate. People actually choose to live in Alaska for God's sake [peace be upon him/her/they, and me]. That's cultural. Eskimoes/Innuit lived there probably because if they headed south they ran into head-hunting Sioux who would scalp them and dance naked around their fires.
People live in dirty great houses with air conditioning roaring in summer and heating in winter. We should all live somewhere moderate, other than a few cyberspace-powered combine harvesters which could stay in Canada to collect the crops. The driver could live in San Diego and steer the machine using a web cam. Same for the train driver bringing the trainload of corn south.
We don't really need much oil at all. It's just a habit.
We were so impressed by the invention of the steam engine that we all wanted to own one. When the Otto cycle came out and we could do the ton, that was even more fun. Then, flying like a bird in 707s - we were away. Huge ships could take us around the world, so we just had to go. It was an era of great excitement after millennia of agricultural bliss [don't scrutinize that "bliss" too closely]. Visiting India and New Zealand was first class fun which swarms could enjoy after the industrial revolution. Now, the industrial revolution has spread people around the world like confetti in a tornado.
Nowadays, one can hear engines humming everywhere. It's tough to get so far away that a still, quiet, clear night can be enjoyed with a full view of the stars, and the meaning of life contemplated without the industrial revolution roaring in our ears and dazzling us with neon, or xenon, or LEDs.
Oil is just a passing fad.
We'll cut usage of it as the human population falls and the fascination with engines fades [probably quickly] and being somewhere else can more easily be done via cyberspace and superpixel 3D viewing with a couple of clicks. The industrial revolution culture will fade, though it still seems huge when roaring down the freeway from LAX to San Diego in an SUV.
Earth will continue its inexorable and relentless processes, burying the carbon permanently, billions of tons a year, heading for another big freeze. The best we can do is put a slight dent in the curve.
When the Arctic ice melts, at least people will be able to drive ships through there from Tokyo to London and New York without the huge journeys that have been needed. Fishing will be greatly improved. Hudson Bay could turn into a huge fish farm. So could Baffin Bay and the Barents Sea.
Mqurice |
