well, I read the barrons article this time, and it reminds me a lot of things I see from the S&P analyst Scott Kessler. I have a completely different read on the weakness in google lately than Barrons or Scott Kessler. Specifically in the area of competition, "increased competition" as Kessler likes to say, is really a clueless statement. Google has done nothing but gain share in the past year, and December was the coup de gras. Thats it for yahoo and especially MSN who is no longer. I don't know what makes Kessler and Barrons think these 2 are going to emerge as some sort of re-energized powerhouse. Even if they merge, which some think is possible, "Microshoo" will then be nothing but a hodgepodge of management styles, ie management by committee.
What DID happen last quarter, which Barrons has not commented on, is the size of the total pie for internet ads was not as large as the analysts thought. MSN missed, YHOO missed and GOOG met, on the revenue side. This means the analysts overestimated the total size of the market which is not a great thing either. But Barrons doesn't talk about that, they only talk about "increased competition" from YHOO and MSN, even though yahoo just said "we're happy to be #2" and MSN totally capitulated and moved to content (along with AOL, CNET and every other me-too player).
My guess is GOOG opens down maybe 5 pts and recovers. |
