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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 382.95-0.8%Nov 13 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (4212)2/15/2006 6:19:32 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 217750
 
Elmat's Second Report: The properties' price increases have been attracting more and more people.
The duty free malls attract people (visitors from abroad) and they are potential buyers. And they are big not expensive and full of the whole new stuff. When my wife says there in Brazil Elmat's here they ask: "Why don’t you go there too! Is very good place!" People are really on awe about Dubai. But not Elmat's

Things work like that: You find a job here. Cash in on your assets at home and move over. Buy a house here and get a Thai wife. Buy that huge car you can’t buy at home. Now the guy is working as an architect, salesman, or manager. You can see the ladies and the young man jogging and the young mother with the toddler. It's too much like Hollywood the place I live there in Greens. Including huge SUVs and expensive cars.
But you look close, there's no industry apart form Coca-cola bottling, cement, oil refinery? (I think they don’t even have one), Jebel Ali Free Zone may do maquiladora type of works. The rest is public utility: water, desalinization, electricity generation… And commerce. Lots of commerce. All imported stuff. The whole scheme is based on more and more people buying properties and the people who buy them are the ones designing and building them and the ancillary infrastructure. There are not many guys arriving to use their money earned elsewhere to live here. Not saying the Russians mafia or some money laundering are not at it. The schem depends of guys coming and buying or renting.

Now imagine that one day the pedal of the bicycle stops? That is the construction stops. The system collapses because the jobs disappear. The people have to go seek work elsewhere. They have to cash in on the property they own and move. Only that there will be many doing that at the same time.

Suppose the USD400K property reaches USD320K. This triggers even more selling. The sheiks decide to sell too before the prices go to the bottom. They may sell and prices keep going down. Lets say the bottom is USD120K. The sheiks start buying back but had "harvested" USD200K. Money had gone to haven. Oh, by the way when you buy here you don’t get a deed!

Now, this old Elmat has seen Jakarta burning, (he reminded his wife of that who was there too.) He's seen what the word collapse means. I don’t know, War in Iran, proper blocking of Hormuz Straight? That could make things start roling down hill.
Meanwhile Elmat sees too many cars parked with plastic still involving the seats.

Ain't I a gloomy SoB?
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