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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: Shack who wrote (129596)2/15/2006 5:46:05 PM
From: skinowski  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
Excellent points all. I can't see at this time how one could figure out this puzzle based on charts. CL decline is either C or 3.

Back in October, I thought that the declines in OIH / XLE (and some key stocks) were corrective in nature, and that gave me some confidence at the time.

I'd say that this time around OIH looks distinctly wedgy. XLE less so... but getting there. OIH - look at a 120 min chart. The action from mid-January to early February looks like a H&S (with a test of trendline on Feb 9). If that's the case, the decline - as of today - "fulfilled" the projection. OIH today tested 78.6% retracement of the rally since Dec 30.

If today's lows do not hold, OIH is probably on its way to the next stop near 127 - 125. (Note that the orthodox top in OIH may have occurred on Dec 23 -- a couple of days after the top in CL).

CL today tested its Nov lows. If they don't hold, the next stop is 55 and change, where (presumed) C=A.

Bottom line - I think the fact that OIH and XLE have some corrective characteristics *suggests* that the current decline in CL is more likely to be Wave "C". But, even in this case, it may have more to go. I'll look at stocks and OIH/XLE for hints. (Btw, it seems that Rydex traders are bailing out of energy funds like crazy. That's another piece of evidence for the bullish side).
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