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by Daniel Pink
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Money That Grows on Cornstalks
by Daniel H. Pink
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Wednesday, February 15, 2006
For the last month, just about every visitor to the Trend Desk has leaned toward me and whispered in my ear the single word on which I should base my financial future.
No, not plastics.
Ethanol. Yes, ethanol, the corn-based alcohol that, when mixed with a splash of gasoline, can power automobiles.
Sure, it's been around forever. Jimmy Carter talked up ethanol back when he donned a cardigan sweater and turned down the thermostat in the Oval Office. But at long last, the stars of supply and the moon of demand may be aligning to propel ethanol to the center of the energy universe.
After all, even the former oilman who now occupies the White House has admitted the U.S. is "addicted to oil." That's where ethanol comes in, bursting with virtues. We know how to make it. And we can now make it not just from corn, but also switchgrass, cornstalks, and other indigestible agricultural waste.
What's more, thanks to rising oil prices and improved production techniques, EP85 (the mainstay blend that's 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline), finally costs less than regular gas. Ethanol also burns clean. It comes from the calm cornfields of the Midwest, not the volatile Middle East.
And unlike hydrogen fuel cells, it doesn't require a brand new infrastructure. You can pump it like gas. Five hundred U.S. service stations already offer the fuel. That's a tiny fraction of the total number, but Ford, GM, VeraSun, and Shell Oil announced plans last week to substantially boost the number of EP85 pumps in the U.S. And some 5 million cars on the road today have combo ethanol-gasoline engines.
Little wonder, then, that a range of smart people with track records of making big bucks -- from all-star venture capitalist Vinod Khosla to mega-entrepreneur Richard Branson -- have caught a mean case of ethanol fever.
Of course, we tend to overestimate big change in the short-term and underestimate it in the long-term. So don't expect to fuel up with ethanol next Tuesday. But in 10 years, it wouldn't surprise me if the U.S. were like Brazil, where nearly one in five vehicles runs on the fuel.
I've seen the future -- and it's traveling from the farm to your gas tank. Adjust your investments accordingly. I have.
Stores with a Cause
In the 1980s, Tom Peters described a leadership technique he called "management by walking around," or MBWA. In the last couple of weeks, I've borrowed Peters' methodology and applied it to the trend-spotting trade. During a few recent rounds of, er, TSBWA, I noticed an interesting development on the streets of two major American cities.
Call it 501(c)3-tail.
Huh? Let me explain. 501(c)3 is the section of the U.S. tax code that covers tax-exempt, nonprofit organizations -- from the Red Cross and the Salvation Army to the non-lobbying parts of the World Wildlife Federation and the National Rifle Association. Ordinarily these nonprofits raise funds through direct mail and large events -- and then use the proceeds to spread their message through television ads and P.R. campaigns. But now a couple of groups have chosen to raise money and awareness simultaneously -- all through the power of retail.
Strolling one afternoon in Manhattan last month, I peered through a storefront window near Rockefeller Center and saw a real live fire truck parked inside. Since I was with my three-year-old son, I had no choice but to take a look.
I'm glad I did. We had entered The Fire Zone, a hands-on learning center operated by the nonprofit FDNY Fire Safety Education Fund. Visitors can explore that fire truck, look at fire-fighting equipment, chat with a firefighter, and participate in fire-safety simulations.
Admission is free. But toward the back, to help raise money for the foundation that operates the facility, is a small store that sells all manner of firefighter paraphernalia. Stopping by gave me a new appreciation for what firefighters do -- and, yep, I decided to support the cause by buying a toy fire truck (for my son).
Then a week or so later, here in Washington, D.C., (which doubles as both Trend Desk world headquarters and the U.S. capital), I noticed a store run by the Human Rights Campaign, a group that advocates equal rights for gay, lesbian, and transgender Americans. Inside you can find more information about the organization's advocacy efforts and purchase HRC T-shirts, caps, and watches.
This is more than Kenneth Cole ads that tout a good cause. 503(c)3-tail makes retail -- the experience of shopping and the merchandise itself -- a fundamental part of nonprofits' efforts to raise funds and take their message to the people. Expect to see more of it.
Mobile Grooming: Not Just for Poodles Anymore
Many afternoons, when I'm not caught up in TSBWA, I push back my chair, leap across the Trend Desk, and head outside for a run. And as I lope through the leafy streets near the border of the District of Columbia and Maryland, I've often seen a long white Winnebago of a truck that seems to be parked in front of a different house each day. The name emblazoned on the side: Rosa's Mobile Pet Grooming.
Don't have time to take your pooch to be clipped? Let the pooch clippers come to you. What a fine idea for people with pets. Too bad, I joked to Mrs. Trend Desk one evening, that there's not a similar service for our three young children.
Maybe that day is not too far off. Check out On Site Haircuts, another long white truck, which rolls from parking lot to parking lot in Silicon Valley serving time-stressed, long-tressed techies. Or how about
Nail Taxi? This self-described "mobile nail boutique" provides manicures, pedicures, and the like at your home, office, or anywhere else. Just hail a Nail Taxi -- and before long, Rover won't be the only one who's looking fine.
Flying the Friendly Skies
Mash-ups are all the rage these days. Take one Internet application (say, a mapping service), combine it with another Internet site (say, a directory of Chinese restaurants), and you've got an annotated map to help you satisfy your Kung Pao craving wherever you wander.
Now comes the latest entry in this combinatorial derby. Take a social-networking site like LinkedIn, mix it with an airline-seat-mapping site like Seat Guru, and what you get? AirTroductions, a site that helps you find a congenial seatmate on your next airplane trip.
Here's how it works: Register for free, and set up a profile of your profession, hobbies, and so on. Then when you're ready to fly, you can check if there's another AirTroductions member on the flight who shares your interests -- and perhaps arrange to sit next to that person. As the site says, "Whether you're looking for a date in Los Angeles, a business networking partner in Tokyo, or just someone to share a cab from Kennedy to Midtown," AirTroductions can help.
Now, the site isn't explicitly about romance. But given the huge popularity of online dating services, that seems to be a ripe market opportunity. Take match.com, mash it up with Yahoo! Travel, and -- voila! -- you've got a business. I'll even give you the name: LoveAtFirstFlight.net. Take it. It's yours. All I ask in return is that you invite me to the first wedding.
Want to send me a trend or sit next to me on an airplane? Zap a note to dantrend@danpink.com. I read every e-mail and respond to most.
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