Bird flu 'could take 142m lives'
Worst case economic cost is $4.4 trillion
cnn.com
SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- As many as 142 million people around the world could die if bird flu turns into a "worst case" influenza pandemic, according to a sobering new study of its possible consequences.
And global economic losses could run to $4.4 trillion -- the equivalent of wiping out the Japanese economy's annual output.
The study, prepared for the Sydney, Australia-based Lowy Institute think tank, says there are "enormous uncertainties" about whether a flu pandemic might happen, and where and when it might happen first.
But it says even a mild pandemic could kill 1.4 million people and cost $330 billion.
In its "ultra" or worst-case scenario, Hong Kong's economy is halved, the large-scale collapse of Asian economic activity causes global trade flows to dry up, and money flows out to safe havens in North America and Europe. Deaths could top 28 million in China and 24 million in India.
The report's release in Sydney Thursday comes as two more countries in Europe -- Germany and Austria -- report that the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in wild fowl (Full story).
The Lowy Institute's report, titled Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza, looks at four possible scenarios:
Mild, in which the pandemic is similar to the 1968-69 Hong Kong flu;
Moderate, similar to the 1957 Asian flu;
Severe, similar to the 1918-19 Spanish flu (which infected an estimated 1 billion people and claimed as many as 50 million lives);
An "ultra" scenario that is worse than the Spanish flu outbreak.
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