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Uncertainties About Russian Reserves and Future Production
Posted by Dave on Wed Feb 15 at 10:21 PM EST
There are few subjects regarding peak oil as important as the uncertainties around what Russia's reserves are and the mysteries of what their future production will be. J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy, says in The future of Russian energy
The world needs every barrel of Russian oil. With growing Chinese and Indian demand and the insatiable appetite of the United States, markets will be tight and even more reliant on the Middle East. Given today's high oil prices, Russian companies and the Russian government believe that they can fund a good part of new developments and even infrastructure projects themselves. Additionally, Chinese and Indian companies, with the strong backing of their governments, are ready to do business with Russian companies and the Russian government. Their investment criteria are more in line with the approach favored by their Russian hosts. Skills as well as money will be crucial, however, and they bring few. If as a result Russia cannot sustain its current oil production level, this will negatively impact world oil markets.
A faltering Russian oil sector would be a disaster for the world economy as well as for Russia itself. President Putin must recognize that he needs a petroleum sector with well-managed and well-capitalized oil, gas and pipelines. He is well within his rights to want the state to dominate it, but it must be managed efficiently. The Yukos affair, as well as infighting in the Kremlin and a lack of transparency and predictability, indicates that he is going in the opposite direction and could hurt Russia's interests as well as the world's if he does not correct his course.
This post takes no official position regarding Russian reserves and predictions about their future production. Lately, there has been controvery regarding some statements made by westexas who, using some data modelling being worked up by Khebab, is predicting a rapid decline in Russian production in a pretty short timeframe. Naturally, if this does occur, the world could be in for a very rough ride. Here, I will present the best data and estimates I can find outside the world of Hubbert Linearizations to give TOD readers a chance to consider the uncertainties surrounding Russia. I should also mention that HO did a post It would be nice, but... back in October covering some of these issues but not in this kind of detail.
There's more... (4106 words) | Comments (10) | Permalink
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Speaking of bumpy plateaus
Posted by Stuart Staniford on Wed Feb 15 at 8:30 PM EST
Exxon average daily oil production, by year, 1997-2005. Click to enlarge. Believed to be all liquids. Source: Exxon annual reports and new press release for 2005 production. Hat tip to Southsider1.
Anyone care to estimate the price elasticity of oil supply from this time series? Let's see, if you double or triple the price, and supply doesn't change at all, 0/N = 0. At least as perceived by Exxon, oil supply appears to be completely inelastic - no response to price whatsoever.
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EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Posted by Prof. Goose on Wed Feb 15 at 10:57 AM EST
The Annual Energy Outlook 2006 presents a forecast and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. The AEO2006 includes the reference case, additional cases examining energy markets, and complete documentation.
Just wanted to give everyone a heads-up that it was out: (link). (and here's a link to the general forecasting page which links to this report...). I am betting we'll be talking about this over the next few days...
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I Guess It's Better than the SETI Stuff We Geeks Did...
Posted by Prof. Goose on Wed Feb 15 at 10:57 AM EST
Jamais over at WorldChanging has a post on a massive computer project, similar to the old SETI project (yes, it's still going...same folks (BOINC) behind both projects) that has screensave-crunched a lot of data looking for an alien signal. The BBC/Climateprediction.net screensaver though uses all of this microcomputer power to crunch simulations/models on pieces of climate change data.
Pretty interesting, and probably a better use of computer power than the looking for the proverbial needle in a haystack, eh?
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