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Non-Tech : The Woodshed
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To: jcpolar who wrote (37659)2/16/2006 4:33:03 AM
From: Andrew  Read Replies (4) of 60929
 
A lot of this is very similar to what happened at the end of 2003. JS was pounding the table then too and using french curves for chart analysis.

I appreciate the reasoning for all the Gold bulls saying that Gold is going higher and the stocks are going higher and in the long run its prolly true that Gold will go much higher but it doesn't change the fact that corrections happen and things do not go up in straight or parabolic lines forever.

I personally think that even if Gold goes to 600 sometime this year that the Gold indexes have prolly made their highs for the year.

The more frantic the Goldbugs get saying this and that about top callers, saying that the $USD is gonna collapse, screaming that its different this time the more convinced I get.

Same thing is happening in the Oil Stocks. Have a look at the Oil sands thread. Complete denial. Is the Oil story finished? No I do not think so but I do think that the correction here in the Oil stocks will be substantial particularly if oil keeps heading for the 40s. Other then some bad political event happening I see Oil back in the 40s before the 70s. We had the warmest winter on record and this doesn't help the case for energy prices. The Iran sabre rattling premium is still heavily reflected in the price.

The $CDN will likely weaken to the $USD some too. As energy prices drop and money leaves the TSX the petro dollar will deflate some over the next several months.

This doesn't change the macro picture though this is just how I see it for the next 6 months or so.
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