Factors that would tend to increase those numbers
1 - Anger at collateral damage, and anger at prison abuses.
2 - Some terrorist acts against us in Iraq might serve as inspiration for more people to become terrorists.
Factors that would tend to decrease those numbers
1 - We kill and capture terrorist in Iraq as do our allies there, reducing the threat from those specific terrorists and from those that rely on them for support or direction.
2 - #1 also has the indirect effect of deterring possible terrorists.
OK, I see where you are coming from. However that net characterisation is also why I disagree. In a war against occupying forces, most (not all but a huge majority) of the resistance will be home-grown, and never would have fought at all had their country not been invaded. They're not fighting for or to replace Saddam, you understand - well, I really doubt that's a major motive now even if it ever was - they're fighting to remove the hated occupying foreigners.
So the 'terrorists' we kill/capture there are overwhelmingly going to be local people, and in a tribal society we're more likely to breed more enemies than we started with by killing members of a tribe. Unless we go for genocide on a scale to make Saddam jealous, anyway.
Nor does even the most brutal occupation diminish or deter such local resistance/terrorists, indeed I would argue it increases their numbers. Evidence? West Bank and Gaza Strip. No need for foreigners there either.
So your factors for decreasing terrorism have negligible net effect, even while the factors increasing them count. And in your increasing factors, you've omitted a few key ones (in Muslim eyes):
Action of mainly Christian forces invading and removing a local Arab leader - sure, he was a bad guy but he was *their* bad guy.
Action of US/UK forces putting their own in charge of Iraq.
Selling off Iraq's assets (esp. oil), overwhelmingly to US companies.
Building great big permanent-looking military bases in the oil fields. Don't forget these.
Incompetence in rebuilding, so that the situation in all but clean water for Baghdad is worse than under Saddam with sanctions.
Making the centre of their capital a no-go zone.
Patrolling around in full combat kit, and threatening/shooting at anyone getting too close or who gives us the jitters (yes, I know WHY we do this. But it is not going to breed love for us.)
Referring to the maiming and killing of innocent civilians, destroying their homes, etc, as 'collateral damage'.
Using chemical weapons (white phosphorus) on Iraqi terrorist/resistance bases.
Lying about using chemical weapons until we got caught.
Not even counting the Iraqi dead, still less naming them, thus showing precisely how much we care about the people we came to 'liberate'...
It's not a good record. So much of what we have done is going to look very bad in Muslim eyes - it doesn't look angelic in mine... |
