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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: GST who wrote (53995)2/16/2006 9:14:28 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
The housing bubble replaced the stock bubble as the "engine of the economy". Since the housing bubble has come to the rescue of the economy

this didn't happen immediately. recall that we DID have a recession in 2001. in the midst of this weakness--the same sort of weakness you are claiming is now going to tank the dollar--in fact in 2001 the US dollar index went on to hit a new high, while the zeuro went to a new low.

a trade deficit of mind boggling size and a combined current account deficit that defies all logic and, so far, has defied gravity.

well, it might defy logic if you assume that all investors are rational profit seekers. but the govts supporting us through recycling their trade surpluses are not seeking profit. they are seeking to suppress their currencies due to their mercantilist agenda. Japan has been doing this since the 1960s! now China and Korea and others are copying them, because they see what an economic miracle can happen if you prop up USD and have an export-led economy.

it is really anybody's guess how long it will continue. the US is still a very important consumer of last resort for all the world's mercantilists and they will not give up their policies easily. one hundred years from now it will all seem clear as day, but it's a mystery today.
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