Some thoughts on DVD from PC Week:
From now until the end of the year, you'll hear a series of
announcements about new digital videodisk players. DVD is a wonderful
advancement, one of the most useful technologies in years. I can't wait for it to get here. But I'm going to have to. And so will you.
Quick reminder: DVD is backward-compatible with CD-ROM but stores much
more data (about 4.7G bytes at first, with more promised for future
versions). The first models will be read-only. A year or two later,
we'll see read/write models, at which time DVD will become a serious
candidate to replace the ancient 3.5-inch floppy as the standard for
removable storage.
It's fine for hobbyists to get fooled by these announcements, to rush
out and buy the first high-priced units, to believe that there will be
something to play on them. Those of us in the corporate world, however, can't afford to be that silly. For a variety of reasons, DVD will take longer than promised to arrive. Here are the obstacles that stand in our way:
The price is not right. First, DVD players cost at least three times
more than CD-ROMs. With today's cutthroat pricing wars, it will take a
pretty brave computer manufacturer to make DVD standard instead.
The chickens are waiting for the eggs. Developers aren't building
software for DVD yet. The first big wave of DVD-optimized titles will
appear in mid-1999. Microsoft says it will prime the pump by releasing
products on DVD next year. But no corporation is going to cost-justify
DVD on the basis that it needs the new version of Encarta with the extra 4G bytes of animation for the kids.
Hollywouldn't. Here's the biggest problem of all. Hollywood's media
moguls decided they wouldn't release their movies onto DVD until the
players were equipped with copy protection. It will be at least next
year before a compromise is reached. Many of the consumer electronics
companies, as a result, are scaling back production plans. They know
they can't sell DVD players until there is something to play on them.
When to jump on board. The starter's gun will go off for DVD when at
least three major studios announce they are putting their film libraries on it. When that critical juncture arrives, the consumer electronics giants will begin producing DVD players in quantity and prices will plummet. Six to 12 months after that, prices will be low enough that hardware OEMs will begin to make DVD standard on desktop PCs.
Don't agree? Think back on CD-ROM. What if you had believed Bill Gates
and other industry leaders when they first started pushing CD-ROM
technology in 1985? It was eight long years before CD-ROM really caught on. I don't think DVD will take eight years to get here (we're all getting better at this transition thing, vendors and users alike), but I do think it will be at least two years, maybe three, before DVD is a smart investment for most corporations. |
