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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR)
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To: pcstel who wrote (2186)2/17/2006 9:31:52 AM
From: DaveMG  Read Replies (1) of 3386
 
Isn't 1.8% of 10 million 180,000, not 1.8 million?

I am going to check on it but I doubt very much that they count the 54% who activate post free trial as subs before they actually sign up and activate because that would ultimately produce huge churn numbers, not even in the ballpark of the numbers being reported..

Your argument depends on 2 factors mainly as I see it. The first you have yet to disclose and that is what is your take on the ultimate number of subs and the rate at which they will continue to accrue. And the second is that costs continue to rise and outflank revenues.

I have been assuming since the beginning that sat radio will ultimately garner at least 25% of the automotive mkt, so 50 million subs split in some way between SIRI and XM, and that subs will continue to grow by approx 5 million/year, which I think will prove conservative) well into the next decade.

For your argument to work, I think you need a ceiling on subs and no ceiling on spending..
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