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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR)
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To: pcstel who wrote (2186)2/17/2006 9:53:06 AM
From: DaveMG  Read Replies (3) of 3386
 
Is the " blended" ie total churn number actually 18% because that is a VERY large number that would in my estimation reflect those 46% who don't activate post trial, but that would also be a deceptive number to use when it comes to look at the model.

It would make more sense, it seems to me to look at churn from those who do sign up and activate, and to then assume that if Xm is posting say 6 million subs at the end of 2005, that some large number ie 500k, will never activate, but all that does is lower the sub numbers by some relatively constant number over time, so that the real sub number is always 500k below what's stated.
And presumably nobody who buys at retail forgets to activate.
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