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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 399.01+0.1%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (4395)2/18/2006 9:51:35 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (4) of 218616
 
Hi Aladdin,
"OK Monday I sell my oilsands???"
I think nobody knows whether ethanol will or will not replace gasoline in a major way all over the temperate world(as opposed to tropical Brazil, where as I keep saying, sunlight and heat are free and abundant).
Some of the unknowns:
How much genetic improvement in the crops is possible and within what time period.
How much topsoil remains in the temperate part of North America and how fast will that be depleted if ethanol becomes the standard fuel. In other words will the need for food overwhelm the availability of crop based fuel?
The tradeoff between spending money on gathering miscellaneous cellulose, e.g. from forests, city wastes etc. and getting money from the combustion of the alcohol that's obtained.
How much improvement can be engineered into the enzyme that catalyzes the hydrolysis of cellulose.
etc. etc.
I don't know but I suspect that NOBODY has a handle on the answers to all these questions. My own strategy is to keep my oil sands stock; I even subscribe to the DRIP on Cos.un but gradually, i.e. over the next year or two, move to a 50/50 distribution, i.e. half in Oil,gas,uranium etc. and half in real estate around the non-US world plus the most solid developing countries banks.
JMHO
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