>>>And the funds now have to defend their own interest since $28 or so is a very important technical support.<<<
I respectfully think that you are making some big assumptions there. In truth, I bought a big chunk of PTEN right around their 1997 full year earnings report, which occurred on April 19, 1998. (Spend some time on Big Charts, you will see the "up" arrows indicating they were beating their earnings estimates all the way down. Here are a couple of interesting posts from April '98 from the Yahoo PTEN thread. You say the funds are defending - I suggest that the brokerages were spewing propaganda then, and today to more safely make their exit:
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M-L Buy on Oil Service
by: bukkwheat52 04/20/98 10:14 am
Msg: 1188 of 21686
Merrill Lynch has put a buy on the oil service stocks this morning. Should help the group. PTEN not particularly mentioned.
(ML put in a buy on OSX in April '98 !!! PTEN had dropped 80% by October '98)
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Wall Street Week on 4/17/98
by: hamiltonpl 04/20/98 10:52 am
Msg: 1189 of 21686
That guy touting cyclicals (and energy) was Ralph Acampora from Prudential Sec. I happened to see the program also, but I too am not a regular - maybe I should be though. He specifically mentioned PTEN and said he sees good value in the sector. Hope he's right!!!!
(I saw Ralph on the tube and actually bought PTEN (after researching it of course) on his recommendation. Did I mention that PTEN dropped 80% after those recommendations??? So we had Merrill and Prudential pumping in April '98.)
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PTEN is a good value
by: stocktraderguy 04/20/98 08:12 pm
Msg: 1195 of 21686
Anyone out there that wants to sell PTEN has to be crazy. The push for 20+ is now on and if you get out now, you are going to miss the run. PTEN shows good value. Everyone knows that stock price is indicative of earnings. As earnings continue to go up so will PTEN. If you want bang for your buck BUY PTEN.
(That would be $20 in the old coordinates ($10 today) PTEN had dropped sub $6 ($3 today) by October 1998).
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Let me summarize. If the stock market were science, it would be predictable, which it clearly isn't. Wall Street clearly put out a lot of bull calls before the '98 collapse. I have no time for cynics, but I have also learned to keep my guard up. To be fair, crude had collapsed to $10 by December '98.
Technical analysis???? I am/was an engineer. We are creatures of analysis. We like to draw all the forces acting on a body in an attempt to predict its future motion. It works in physics. The stock markets are not physics. In particular, SENTIMENT is out there. I don't know how to predict sentiment. I think TA provides some measure of sentiment prediction, and I see dropping charts, and have felt the burn of holding while saying to myself - the fundamentals look so good - I am right, and the rest of Wall Street just isn't paying attention to the basic economics. How about GREED . Was Merrill-Lynch caught red handed swapping barges with Enron to inflate Enron's earnings while selling Enron stock to little old ladies. I don't know what Merrill is saying about PTEN or OSX today - i don't listen. But if they were saying buy, I would do the opposite. Look at the evidence from '98, and look at the chart today.
I loathe the concept of paying attention to the crowd. I think I am a lot smarter than the crowd. But the crowd moves things, and like it or not, (and I don't) I have to crank that in to my investment thinking. I see the crowd running for the exits. I ask, why would the crowd reverse direction here??? Only Iran. And that is it. OK. Through in Nigeria and Hugo.
One is never bored investing in OSX. |
