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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (54509)	2/22/2006 6:29:19 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) of 110194

IMH reported. IMH is the 4th largest alt-A lender but is probably the largest pure Alt-A lender as the top 3 are most likely the CFC or WMs. If I got the numbers correctly from their CC this morning, they estimated that $5B worth of ARMs are scheduled for recast in 2006. However, so far in Jan 06, about $600-700 million prepaid/refinanced. At this pace, there will in theory be no recast effect at all at IMH though the refinances probably resulted in a higher interest than before. IMH said had the loans be reset this yr, the average rate would have been in the high 7% range. Now the question is how much equity and borrowing power is left in those who face the recast. If they are all able to refinance their way out of the recast AND can handle the likely increase in payments, then one of the GREBB day events would no longer be true. On a side note, I had lunch with someone in the title business today. He thinks he needs to cut his staff by 40% and likely same for all his competitors, based on current market conditions in San Diego.

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