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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 306.040.0%4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (28795)2/23/2006 12:27:59 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (3) of 95638
 
Another way of looking at what happened to INTC is to review the "before" and "after" earnings outlook at the close of this past FY, which for INTC is December. The table below shows the consensus analyst numbers starting on 12/30, and how they have changed on a weekly basis until the present time.

-WK	CURR	NEXT
-END	 YR	 YR
12/30	1.40	1.73
1/6	1.40	1.73
1/13	1.40	1.74
1/20	1.33	1.46
1/27	1.27	1.47
2/3	1.27	1.46
2/10	1.25	1.47
2/17	1.25	1.47

So what has happened is that prior to any reporting by INTC, on 12/30, FY 05 was projected at 1.40, and FY 06 was projected at 1.73. Upon reporting in January, analysts started adjusting the earnings picture until we have the present situation of FY 06 earnings projected at 1.25 and FY 07 earnings projected at 1.47.

In other words, the earnings projections for FY 06 have gone from 1.73 to 1.25, a -28 percent reduction, and FY 07 has been established at 1.47. 1.47 for FY 07 is -15 percent BELOW the previously expected 1.73 for FY 06. Not a pretty picture! Instead of a nice upward trend in earnings year over year, there has been a big hiccup. One might argue there has been over a 1 year "slippage" in the earnings outlook for INTC as a result of their report.

Don
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