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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (54569)2/23/2006 1:19:38 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
Russ,

I was debating this issue with a homebuilders analyst yesterday in the context of whether bubble areas such as SD and non bubble areas such as Detroit would be hit in the same manner.

He believes the bubble areas would be hit first while I opine that there may be enough equity left due to the higher appreciation to possibly squeeze one more round of refinances out of the bubble areas, unless other conditions change. I based my opinion on defaults and foreclosures. It appears that we still have negligible defaults while the non bubble areas appear to be experiencing a higher rate. Unfortunately, we do not have good data source for defaults to strongly validate either opinion.

In either case, the First American report clearly pointed out that there is little room left unless conditions improve from here, either in the form of lower rates or higher property value.

Ramsey
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