CG re: ["I also recall that you turned bearish on gold some time ago at considerably lower prices than we see now.What is your current take on the yellow?"]
I thought Palladium was one of the most compelling risk:reward trades ever offered during this entire commodity cycle. It offered near classic "Ben Graham" worst-case valuation protection, as it reached max divergence from Platinum (a clear disconnect between it's price & risk).
stockcharts.com[d,a]daclynay[d19980812,20050812][pf][iut!lj[$plat]][J56920576,Y]&listnum=2
So, I swapped out of Gold and into Silver & Palladium -- stocks, futures and physical.
Gold did continue higher than I thought it would... but, Silver outperformed it and Palladium substantially outperformed it over the same timeframe.
In a defensive move to protect gains and manage risk -- I ended up outperforming gold.
Lucky, or good ?
I've learned to be thankfull for either one.
stockcharts.com[l,a]dbclynay[d20050901,20060223][pf][iut][j70291209,y]&listNum=2
For Palladium: I've been moving up the buy points from $240, to $260.... and sell points from the initial move thru $300 (which was huge technically), up to $320 and I think we see $340+ on this move and ultimately, I will be very surprised if we don't see $400 Palladium taken out before any significant "stop outs" occur.
If (when) Iran explodes (literally, or figuratively) -- then the entire metal complex ramps...who's to say how high Gold, or Silver can go ?
If Iran errupts -- I think Silver becomes the play because it's being set up beautifully and the manic mo-mo players in commodities right now - really like small niches.
I think I've spotted some interesting action in Gold's little brother over the last few months and we'll just have to wait and see if Silver doesn't substantially outperform gold on the next move -- which may be just 30 days away as:
There are two powerful events on the near horizon:
On March 20th Iran open's it's Oil Trading bourse - priced in Euro's -- remember Saddam's original threat to do the same ? --(look what happened to him).
...not good.
From March 23rd onward -- The Fed no longer will be reporting M3 (as noted by Ron Paul -- during Bernanke's recent appearance before congress).
Then there's this bombing of the Samarra's Askariyah shrine, which is of biblical proportions; as it contains the shrine of the Hidden Imam -- the Mahdi, whom the Shiites believe is about to manifest himself...(just what we needed).
...a bit apocolyptic.
Think of all the money that the Military/Industrial Defense Complex and the Bush/Big Oil/Saudi Royals/Carlyle group cabal will make if we go to War with Iran.
Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Oil...pick something; but buckle up and hold on... the ole' global pot's a percolating....and the next 30 days will not be boring.
I think America may have just experienced a major awakening here of late... you can feel it in the air -- major shifts in the global geopolitical undercurrents... major.
PS: Remember what happened to the markets immediately following the last change of guard at the Fed.
Interesting times...you can almost sense the needle on the geopolitcal seismograph ready to bury itself around number M8.
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