>> the situation where INTC goes up when a downgrade is issued
Don, I have refined my model a little bit to comprehend the latest Intel downgrade shenanigans, which match the downgrades of seagate just before it doubled. This refined model now has a predictive aspect, which I will test by posting its predictions here.
The scam (with many stocks goes like this).
A large fund holder starts to sell a position. Usually it is Fidelity. As the selling goes into a second or third day, buyers realize that there is much more to the selling, so they stand aside. And the price drops fast. Eventually the big seller pauses or is done.
Buyers would like to start buying (and covering), but they don't know how much supply there is to be had at lower prices. So they figure that out in two ways:
1- run an algorithm-trading program to cause steep price drops to see if they can create an avalanche from retail sellers. That's how the $19.88 price for INTC happened. It lasted only a few seconds, and the answer was negative. There is no supply at that price.
2- arrange for downgrades from brokers to again bring out any supply from fearful but hesitant sellers. Again, no avalanche.
So now they might try another downgrade, but I think none of it will work. The big seller is out.
OK, on to the predictive aspect. Just as the proof of a pudding is in the eating, so is the proof of a model in the prediction.
There are 3 stocks that I have on my screen that I think fall into this model.
1- SNDK. This stock is dropping without any publicized down-grades. Means that a seller (Fidelity - who else ?) is distributing. Buyers won't buy because they don't know how much more supply there is. After the stock reaches a few days of stability, I think we'll see a combination of downgrades and algorithm trading to probe that bottom. So my model says sndk has some more down to go. After which it will rise. But first a good further drop.
2- STX. Obviously someone is distributing at a top. Every other day there is an upgrade, but the price does not climb. This stock is due for a fall, then a run of the scam, then a recovery.
3- AMD. Every down-grade of Intel had un upgrade of AMD folded into it. But also the stock price does not go up. Once the distributors are done, the up-grades will cease, and they will be interested in dropping the price to accumulate and start another run.
Now let's see if this model is any good or not.
Sarmad |
