Orca, I think we need to leave Dan for a while as he comes to grips with the follies of the Bush Administration. Here is a view of the Iraqi situation from overseas, Pakistan. DAWN is a major newspaper in that country. Yes indeed, the Iraqis would line the streets with flowers and candy to greet the US military. Do you remember who said that?
Spectre of civil war
UNLESS the present slaughter is stopped, Iraq could descend into civil war, for the US-led forces and the elected government have both failed to give the country peace and stability. This provides the resistance with a big boost. All along it been attacking all sorts of targets — mosques, state institutions, especially police stations and recruitment and training centres, marketplaces and religious gatherings irrespective of who gets killed or maimed, the aim being to ignite sectarian passions. So far, the Shia leadership has exercised commendable restraint by not reacting to attacks on some of their most revered shrines. But the attack on Imam Ali Hadi mosque in Samarra on Wednesday has provoked a backlash that has resulted in at least 200 people killed and numerous others wounded. The intensity of the violence is evident from the unusual day-time curfew announced by the government in Baghdad and three provinces. If this level of violence continues, the resistance will have succeeded in its aim, for its goal all along has been to create a situation in which the US-installed government is unable to function.
The political repercussions of the current bloodbath are already evident: the leading Sunni bloc in parliament, the National Concord Front, has dissociated itself from government formation talks and boycotted a meeting called by President Jalal Talabani. The task before the UN envoy to Iraq, Pakistan’s Ashraf Qazi, is daunting. Even though all factions have assured him that they want to do everything to avoid civil war, it is difficult to see how the various factions can bury the hatchet and work out a broad agreement to end violence. The moment of truth has now arrived for the victors of the Iraqi war. They attacked Iraq in March 2003 to liberate it from the Baathist regime and give peace and liberty to its people. Nearly three years after the invasion, the people of Iraq have neither peace nor liberty. It is anarchy and chaos with suicide bombers and ubiquitous gunmen killing and destroying at will. The US-trained Iraqi security forces have as much failed to restore law and order as those who trained them. Washington is now on the horns of a dilemma. If US troops stay on, violence will continue, and it would not know whom to side with in case there is a civil war. If it pulls out, then there will be a terrible civil war in which Iraq could split into at least three zones — the oil-rich Shia region in the south, the Kurds in the north and the Sunni triangle in the middle.
America’s follies apart, the fate of Iraq rests critically with the Iraqi leadership. Irrespective of sectarian and ethnic considerations they should first attempt to protect the unity and integrity of Iraq as one nation. If the centre collapses, the state structure could develop fissures. Separatist tendencies among the Kurds have been strong, and if they decide to declare independence there will be repercussions in Turkey and Iran where there are large Kurdish minorities in territories contiguous to Iraq. This could mean a widening of the conflict that may unleash a process of fragmentation of the Middle East. American blunders notwithstanding, the issue is now basically in Iraqi hands. They must renew the political process and try to put Iraq on the long and hard road to democracy.
dawn.com |
