Well, my conclusions seem to be different.
If no one else is going to make buys and post them, then the thread holds only academic and limited interest for me.
I'm always reluctant to buy anything. I've lived through many sudden surprises - '67, '71, '87, etc. etc. To me, being reluctant to buy doesn't translate to don't buy, or that the formula shouldn't be applied because of something called "reluctance".
"Comfort". That's another key word. I don't find much correlation between being "comfortable" with a stock purchase vs. its subsequent performance of lack thereof. Often the stocks I'm least comfortable in buying or owning seem to be the best performers.
I don't need to verify a formula or be able to reproduce it. If I spot enough stocks in the quadrant that looks like high returns on equity with high earnings yield, all I need to do is screen or search a little further there to select a decent enough number of candidates for purchase, and then ACTUALLY purchase them. Which I'm assuming is what Greenblatt is essentially saying.
If somebody has searched the top 100 companies with Greenblatt's screen and doesn't find some stocks to buy or doesn't own a bunch of those stocks already, then imo, there's no real hope that Greenblatt's book will work for the person. I see it as a statistical thing. Buy a decent number that look okay. Apparently others are saying something like, "Well, I might commit to maybe one or two or maybe three if I researched them carefully enough or found them through more careful screening techniques or understood how they came up on his website." I'm guessing though they won't be able to improve upon Greenblatt's purported results. Especially if they aren't buying anything -g-.
All just my opinion, based on my experience, underpinned by my own risk/reward profile and financial objectives. |
