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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (54715)2/25/2006 10:39:45 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I would guess that the FED would like to see some normalization of rates across the board.... a merger of global rates if you would.

i do not think that is possible, if by "global" you mean to include the largest creditor (Japan) and the largest debtor (US). i doubt long rates in Japan can go over 2% given their incredible debt mountain.

Who know I am just guessing as much as anyone else.

hear, hear. we are all guessing. there are a million possible futures; you don't know which one will turn up. i just try to make my guess one that will benefit if the world i expect turns out to be true (which it has--clown long energy trade for three years), and will not get too killed if it doesn't turn out to be true (hence bond exposure).

i still believe in all these long-term themes like energy, basic materials, emerging, etc. but there is the interplay with the rapid money movements that scares the carp out of me. emerging in particular is waiting to get whacked imo. you don't get 70% up years and huge inflows without Mr. Market issuing a friendly reminder that standard deviation means fluctuation in both directions.

I seriously underestimated the strength of the housing bubble and what it would take to prick it.

i think several years from now, we might be saying that we seriously underestimated the depth of the housing bear market. no shiat!!!
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