A&A Energy Security Briefing
Dear Reader of Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections,
a new issue of A&A Energy Security Briefing has been published, subscribers can download this issue after they login with their personal account. For those of you interested in a sample issue, the November 2005 issue can still be downloaded for free.
Executive Summary issue #02 February 2006
Foreword, by Dr. Kevin Rosner:
Energy security is no longer a responsibility that is overseen and executed exclusively by commercial enterprise alone. Energy security is at a minimum a national security issue for each and every nation and given energy demand-supply routes, hard commercial infrastructure, land and sea based transport corridors, and the price volatility of liquid hydrocarbons its interdependencies tie together financial markets, health and human services, military readiness and preparedness, and the overall seamless functioning of civil society.
Having said this, multinational organizations, regional institutions, and industrial cooperatives have to rethink their strategic priorities if they are to remain relevant in facing this global challenge. The universe of risks and challenges to unimpeded energy supply is enormous: natural disasters, technological failures, human intervention and intrusion, and of course the terrorist threat, are all working components of an increasingly dangerous landscape through which energy companies and their respective governments must maneuver. As a result, the issue of energy security is moving onto the defence-security agenda catching stakeholders ill-prepared and uncertain as to how to react to the next energy event.
The NATO Forum on Energy Security is specifically designed to address these challenges and engage stakeholders in charting a safe and secure course forward. Involving NATO'S Supreme Allied Commander, two Prime Ministers, energy ministers, senior executive leadership from the energy and power communities, and the vast panoply of experts that are working hard to make our world secure, the NATO Forum promises to be a watershed event in this ever increasing broad field of endeavor. We welcome your thoughtful input and participation in this watershed event in Prague February 22nd-24th 2006. Information on the Forum can be found at www.energy-security.org.
Best regards, Kevin Rosner,
NATO Country Director, NATO Forum on Energy Security
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Executive Summary
Key risks
Middle East and North Africa: anti-Western riots in Algeria have the potential to turn unrest towards hydrocarbons interests; in Iraq widespread insurgency continues, with concerns that the hydrocarbons industry has been infiltrated; the Iranian nuclear crisis sharply increases political risks to those working in or associated with Iran.
Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe: Russia still dominates the energy security agenda with a mild upsurge in energy-related political violence in the Caucasus and continuing uncertainty over negotiations with Ukraine. Has the region as a whole reacted to the threat of Russian gas supply control?
Africa: The MEND group in the Niger Delta threatens further disruption to production in the region; increasing tensions between Chad and Sudan portent badly for the security of energy assets, however at present only political risk and not physical damage has been manifest; increased political risk in Kenya.
Asia: an upsurge in militant attacks in both India and Pakistan; the worsening situation in Sri Lanka prompts a review of critical infrastructure resilience; China-Myanmar negotiations provide a setback for the MBI pipeline.
Latin America: Ecuador is demonstrating a plethora of risks to the energy industry including civil unrest, general insecurity and changing taxation schemes; oil-producing areas in Colombia remain unstable; in Bolivia a hard-line new energy minister starts to set out his stall.
North America: State of the Union Address lacks real substance regarding energy security however an alleged plot to bomb US infrastructure will focus attention.
Europe: controversial cartoons endanger the security of the large number of expatriate energy workers; possible uncertainty over energy policy in Norway.
Project Environment Analysis: A profile of unrest in the Niger Delta
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About
The A&A Energy Security Briefing is the essential source of strategic risk and market information for international energy professionals.
Of particular relevance to operational and strategic decision-makers, it delivers AKE's analysis of critical security risks in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Former Soviet Union.
Region-specific market news from Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections (www.gasandoil.com) is tailored to the requirements of professionals that need to stay informed of new and existing security risks as well as on the broad issue of regional energy-security developments.
Unique among energy publications the A&A Energy Security Briefing also contains political risk analysis: informing on the threat of expropriatory action, licence cancellation, taxation regimes and other governance issues.
Each month emerging energy security trends are identified and highlighted, helping companies naturally exposed in high-risk areas stay one step ahead of their risk environment.
A monthly project environment analysis section takes a look at large energy projects, their security risk profile and critical factors, outlining positive and negative influences and lessons for the future.
The A&A Energy Security Briefing is a collaborative venture between Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections, the premier source of market information for the global energy industry, and AKE, the leading provider of specialist international risk mitigation services.
Subscriptions
The A&A Energy Security Briefing is released monthly and is available for 925 euro per year.
For more information visit www.gasandoil.com/energysecurity/
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