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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Rarebird who wrote (55034)3/5/2006 6:23:22 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
>>The fundamentals moving forward look very bearish. But that means little till you get technical confirmation.

I see some bearish technical clues as well.
The S&P continues to struggle against the January high, which makes the past 31/2 months look more and more like a distribution pattern. Of course, a decisive close above 1296 will change that, but the index already had plenty of opportunities to do so and failed.
The move of the NDX from the February low looks like a struggle up (correction) rather then a trend.
Again, a decisive move over 1718 will change the picture but it, also, had the chance to do so, with following wind from the SOX.
A sharp move down in European markets in the past four days (well, the ECB announced its 1st rate hike in years and Trichet sounded very vigilant)
What looks like a lower high in the making on the Nikkei, making its past three months also look distributive.

The RUT and NYSE composite are the most interesting.
Both made a new high above the 2000 top, and both look like they're completing the last up move from their respective October lows.
They both made a new high intraday on Friday but closed down for a second day in a row.
It looks quite clear to me that we're going to see a correction for the last move now (around 4% in the NYA and 6% in the RUT) but will there be another leg up later I don't know, and is still early to tell. The RUT will have to take out the previous high area around 690 first, so we'll have to see how it handles itself at the strong 695 support first.

ATG
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