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Gold/Mining/Energy : Thermal Control Technologies Corp TCT (was Redux Energy)

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To: mike wood who wrote (142)9/18/1997 7:04:00 PM
From: Randyfb   of 1208
 
Annual meeting of Shareholders.
The annual meeting went off smoothly yesterday. The PR firm (forget the name) ran it very well. All motions were approved. A promotional film was shown which will be used for marketing. It describes the product and its advantages and they show favorable comments by truckers who use it. I was impressed with the film. A Q&A period followed and the meeting then closed (one hour). We then went for drinks and informal mingling. I spoke to several Company people and other investors.
By now you have probably seen yesterdays press release.
The Company wants to raise $10 million to finance further expansion. They will run out of production capacity sooner or later. They are considering opening a plant in Edmonton, Alberta. Their existing plant is essentially only an assembly operation. All parts come from suppliers. Blaine (Pres and CEO) told me that they could bring production costs down from $350ish to $150ish per unit if they do more of the manufacturing themselves. They also have plans to expand the product lines (notably into buses - they announced yesterday the completion of successul testing by Detroit Diesel). The $10 million would go to new facilities, R&D, etc. (sorry - forget the complete breakdown).
The company's name is to change to Thermal Control Technologies in October. New symbol will be TCT (suprise suprise). Stock should begin trading in US on OTC-bb in around 3 weeks (per Blaine). He hopes that they will move to TSE and NASDQ in the long run (a year?).
Blaine thought 2nd qtr earnings would be 4 to 5 cents per share. Remember, there are more shares outstanding with the exercise of warrants in Aug. He thought 20 cents this year. Hopefully he is being conservative. There have been only 4 minor warranty claims to date. There are about 3000 CAC's out there and some have a million miles on them. Sounds like a solid product!
Some 4 million odd shares are held by insiders but when you add in friends and family, about 60% of shares are controlled. No hostile takeover has much hope under these circumstances.
Now to the possible negatives. Although I was impressed with the company people I met, they appear to lack experience at the top (Blaine addmitted this in the meeting). They have done very well so far but as the company grows they made need some experienced help. Few of the present top mgmt have experience from other positions with growing companies in a similar business.
I asked what the biggest risk to the company was. They feel that a new, competing design might be biggest risk. I suppose that could be said for any product. One director mentioned the Ballard Power company, which is developing fuel cell engines that run on hydrogen. Ironically, I have some Ballard stock. I know that their engines are a few years away from commercial viability.
My main concern is that the 5.2 cents of first quarter earnings does not appear to take into account any income taxes. Kinda changes our forecasts, doesn't it? Although the company has some losses to carry forward and some tax pools to use, I assume they will be taxable pretty quick. Also note that receivables are very high.
Conclusion: I am still optimistic about RDX but I won't add to my position for now. I'll check out the 2nd Qtr numbers first and ask a few questions to get a better feel for earnings AFTER taxes etc.
I see the stock is up today - probably some buying interest generated by the meeting and press release. Let's hope it continues!

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