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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 175.25

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Dec 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (50842)	3/7/2006 5:39:55 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 197013

CDMA Unit Sales and Share ... Slacker, Did you happen to see a summary of what Strategy Analytics claimed for the exact unit sell-in share of the top 3 (or 4) CDMA mobile device manufacturers in CY2005? I saw it somewhere but can't find it now. My recall was that they had LG at 20.x % (not quite 21%), Samsung at 17.x %, and Nokia at 12.x %. I don't think I saw shares for #'s 4-6 (Moto, Kyocera, Sanyo). Although some of the press continues to refer to Samsung who claimed that 75% of their CQ4'05 sales were GSM as number 1 in CDMA mobile devices (and revenue wise they may well be) LG is definitely the number one unit producer of CDMA mobile devices in the world. In CY2005, 30.4 million (55%) of the 54.9 million devices LG sold into channels were CDMA and according to LG's PR, Strategy Analytics credits them with nearly 21% [CDMA] market share worldwide. tinyurl.com Based on that 30.4 million units sell-in and "nearly 21% [CDMA] market share" that puts SA's estimate of CDMA mobile devices at ~142.3 million units in 2005, and that produces a variance of over 17 million units with QUALCOMM's estimate of ~160 million units sold-in and on which royalties were paid making it THE number. Part of the variance is devices sold for CDMA in WLL but I suspect that number is far shy of 17 million so there are several million more CDMA units flying under everybody's tracking radar -- except QUALCOMM's -- but it's interesting that QUALCOMM continues to use Strategy Analytic's data in their composite slide of CDMAS share data rather than calculating off the royalty log. It does give good consistency with the rest of the share data in the slide. Based on QUALCOMM's numbers LG would have had ~19% CDMA share. Number 6 Sanyo sold ~8 million CDMA handsets out of their total production of 12 million units giving them ~ 5.5% CDMA share according to SA but 5% if QUALCOMM's figure is used. I assume that Motorola who evidently and according to QUALCOMM's slides was knocked out of the number 4 slot earlier this year by Nokia who sold ~18 million CDMA units this year (~12.5% share on SA's scale) had sell-in close to Nokia's but I can't find an estimate from anywhere on their production or share and that's another data point I'm missing. Total Nokia + Sanyo share in CY 2005 is consequently between 16.25% (against QUALCOMM's number) and 18% against SA's. If you (or others) have any missing pieces, please supply. Best, - Eric -

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