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Biotech / Medical : analysts and calls -- ML

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From: tom pope	3/9/2006 7:47:19 AM
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AFFX Affymetrix Inc (AFFX, $32.79, C-3-9) Maintain Sell; We Think Theoretical Fair Value is ~$25. Lowering 06E from $0.47 to $0.39 and 07E from $0.80 to $0.67. Visited w/ ILMN mgmt subsequent to AFFX's announcement that "customers are experiencing challenges in the scale up" of experiments using its 500K SNP chip. Think customers are likely to delay orders for AFFX 500K chips thru 1H until they have had an opportunity to evaluate ILMN's product (should be available in Q2). Now est '06 rev to grow 7%, vs. 11% previously. Think it will take longer than AFFX has forecast to absorb its new manufacturing capacity & return to 70%-plus gross margins.

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