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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 342.47

+1.6%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: etchmeister who wrote (29164)	3/9/2006 9:22:40 AM
From: auriculatus	Read Replies (3) of 95737

Hi etch, I fully agree (even though it makes me cringe) with your assessment. The bookings vs. pps chart is very clear. And the steep drop after AMAT's great outlook seems to indicate that the big manipulators look at the same chart as well. Still riding NVLS and quite afraid that it will not regain 27.5. This sector has got to be the most counter-cyclical when it comes to pps versus earnings. It is the one where the big boys have mastered the art to get the masses in at the highs since all outlooks are super positive right now and based on INTC's capacity constrains and TSMC's util rate, numbers by the SECs should be good going forward. Yet these stocks will most likely start a very long slide. The weak hands will then sell out as the business gets worse, just when these stocks hit their lows. Awful sector to navigate. Once I get out of NVLS, I will play elsewhere, trust me. Send me a not if you have some time.

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