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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks
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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (5437)9/18/1997 9:46:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb   of 9285
 
Bill & Bill, what is your estimate of the probability that all or part of MD has been sold to AnswerThink? Where does VIAS fit in to this picture? There is something (I don't know what) going on behind the scenes here. Whatever it is, it is probably not very good for Zitel which seems to be a fifth wheel now.

I did check my sources at NIH and could find no evidence of a contract with Zitel yet. However, Zitel is on a vendor list along with others and could get some work. I found no evidence that Zitel is favored over others. But it is entirely possibly that there are contracts in the works that my sources were not aware of. I did hear an opinion that it is more likely that Zitel will get work as a sub to "regular" contractors than to get it directly.

Also the N/G deal means that government work is more likely to go to MD via that route than through Zitel. Somewhere along the road Zitel's "exclusive access" to the MD technology seems to have lost the "exclusive" component. It is possible that MD could get a lot of work and Zitel end up not making much from it.

I will be shorting Zitel tomorrow, but not too much and I will remain nimble. You must be careful not to become emotionally attached to these positions, it really could go up, up, up again!
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