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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups
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To: chowder who wrote (8225)3/12/2006 5:21:47 PM
From: hubris33  Read Replies (2) of 13449
 
Technical analysis is a process. You must go through the process of learning all of the indicators and experience them in real time trades. After a while, you will find yourself using fewer and fewer of them.

Dabum - excellent comment! I appreciate your insight and willingness to share what you have learned. I find that to be a rarity from one so articulate and accomplished and thus greatly appreciate your openness. Hope I can learn from these insights.

Thanks for that note on CHK, as I had considered adding due to the addition in the index. Perhaps I should realize that if I had the idea that many other more experienced had it as well, only much sooner. Though your explanation is probably the better reason to avoid this trade.

Now you astutely point out that, The difference between a novice trader and a professional trader is that a novice trader will try to capture the price low while the professional trader will try to capture the price point where the character of the trend changes.

I confess to being guilty of trying to catch a falling knife from time to time.

In your presentation of charts and discussion on NBR you point out a high volume spike that occurred at the pivot point on February 6. If I might, I'd like to ask a question or two to help me understand what you are seeing? In addition to the large volume I note that the HODs in February have all been lower that this period high from January. Is this part of what you note while looking at the chart? Also I have read 'somewhere' (though memory fails me on where), that when the price drops to a pivot area, accompanied by heavy volume, and the price fails to close below the pivot, then that heavy volume is a sign of participants 'catching' the drop a repelling it. After all in this case the bulls did not allow the bears to close the price below the pivot point. Perhaps this is 180 degrees off? So you would conclude that the inverted hammer formation, piercing of the pivot area, confirmed by 3x volume is a sure sign of the impending trend change? What else did you see in that first chart?

Again thanks for sharing your knowledge.

H3
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