Concerning oil stands, here's what Policy Pete has to say:
SANDS – More Oil than Saudi Arabia!
- The Oil Sands cannot significantly offset declines in world production because of the lead times and capital investment required. Massive expansions in the Oil Sands and Venezuelan Orinoco extra-heavy oil belt could increase combined production from 1.2 million barrels per day at present to as much as six million barrels per day by 2025, which is only 5% of EIA forecast World Demand in 2025.
- Oil from the oil sands is very energy intensive – Forecast four- to five-fold growth to 2025 will require between 1.6 and 2.3 bcf/day of natural gas, which is approximately equivalent to the planned maximum capacity of the MacKenzie Valley pipeline of 1.9 bcf/day, or about one-fifth of forecast Canadian domestic consumption.
- Expansion of capacity is limited by natural gas supply and natural gas price, which could destroy economics if there are shortfalls in supply, barring widespread application of non-thermal processes, or switching to alternative fuels.
- Expansion of capacity is limited by water supply (1need average of 1-2 barrels of make-up water for every barrel of oil, depending on recovery method and technology), let alone future expansion unless technologies to reduce water consumption and/or further recycle water can be employed.
- Expansion of refining capacity may also be limited by projected shortfalls of condensate/light crude diluent for blending which are forecast to occur in the 2004-2006 timeframe. (National Energy Board, 2003), requiring other alternatives. (1CERI report 2003)
Might as well invest in gas. |
