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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 351.08

+2.3%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (29311)	3/13/2006 12:08:33 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) of 95776

Bonds are attempting to break out higher today. This is not something that is good for the stock market. news.yahoo.com <snip>"When rates back up, growth slows ... quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point," Rosenberg wrote in a note to investors. We are no longer inverted but with bond yields moving higher the signal that the inverted yield curve gave seems valid. The economy is going to slow. Some Bond Charts: investorshub.com Note that the stock market suffered last time this happened until the ratio on the 30 year bond to the 3 month T-Bill was paying 3 to 1! investorshub.com Bottom line is that the downgrade of AMD is valid based on the fact that in an economic slowdown there will be more goods in inventory being chased by less available dollars. This hurts all competitors. From Briefing.com: 09:16 AMD Advanced Micro downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Punk Ziegel- tgt cut to $45 from $48 (36.63 ) -Update- Punk Ziegel downgrades AMD to Accumulate from Buy and lowering thier tgt to $45 from $48 saying they believe Intel's inventory struggles are growing and see additional near-term risk for AMD in the low-end microprocessor segment over the next one to two quarters. Of course we will have a rally that will look pretty good soon enough. The SOX/SMH would be up if not for the AMD upgrade and the rise in bonds but I believe it is a rally that investors would be wise to lighten up positions on. JMHO of what may happen and what could be in actuality all wrong. RtS

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