Goldman notes that MU continued its practice of not providing explicit guidance. However, they expect MU to generate losses over the next few quarters due to significant weakness in DRAM prices, as despite the co's diversification strategy, they believe commodity DRAM still dominates the P&L. They say MU is trading at a ~15% to 20% premium to its global DRAM peers on 2006 P/BV and P/S metrics.
They try to predict but they can't - these analysts would be dust in the wind without backing of their firms
Nanya: DDR2 ASP to rise another 10% in March
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Hans Wu, Taipei; Esther Lam, DigiTimes.com [Monday 13 March 2006]
Nanya Technology is stating that it has observed strong orders from PC OEMs, and the company predicts that its average DDR2 contract price will increase 10% in March, according to company spokesperson and vice president of global sales & marketing Pei-lin Pai.
The leading Taiwan-based memory maker claims that its DDR2 ASP (average selling price) has already grown by over 20% since February, with its overall DRAM ASP up 6%, Pai said. The memory maker stressed that it did not see any signs of a price drop in March and some PC OEMs have even purchased extra DDR2 chips at higher than settled upon quotes, he added. Contract ASPs for DDR2 should rise another 10% in March, he noted. Sources hinted that Nanya quoted its 256MB DDR2-533 DIMMs for approximately US$20 in February.
Nanya expects its orders to remain strong in April and it anticipates a shortage of DDR2 should persist in the near term. Despite marketers predicting that DDR2 contract prices will peak in March, Nanya explained that current setbacks in demand are only temporary as buyers wait for upcoming new products or price adjustments.
Upcoming Intel CPU price cuts in April and the introduction of AMD DDR2-supported CPUs are the two major factors constraining demand, Pai said. He reiterated that the DDR2 market should resume momentum in the second half of 2006.
Despite posing a bullish outlook for DDR2 contract prices, Pai indicated that spot prices may be subject to price fluctuations. As the new DDR2 validation process with PC OEMs may require some time, batches of newly produced DDR2 parts may flood the spot market, he noted. |
