***** Grand Theft Oil Continues *****
Goldman shatters estimates and announces record earnings-- whodathunkit ?!?!?
Enron then -- Goldman now.
Mary Meeker and Henry Blodgett then -- Arjun Murti and Matt Simmons today.
When, not if... tic toc`
We just got a 50% correction in Natural Gas....when Goldman turned on it's followers and raked the table clean after leading the hedge fundies headlong into nat gas post the twin hurricane direct hit on the Gulf Coast infastructure (which Matt Simmons said would create a bigger hit to the US Economy than "Pearl Harbor"...this following his earlier promise of a Q4 2005 (at the latest) supply:demand (not Iran nuke crisis) created price shock in Oil.
Reality is playing out quite the contrary as global demand numbers just got cut and as Oil and Natural Gas inventories continue to bloat, now at levels exceeding those that fundamentally supported crude in the high $20's and Nat Gas around $3.
Of course we've had a correction in the US Dollar from the 120's to the now 90 level...so a 25-30% currency adjustment is warranted in Crude...which takes us to an upper $30's range for Oil....the rest is risk premium on supply disrutptions vis a vis Iran, Nigeria, Venezeula et al...and the balance -- simple speculation.
One factor that few are pricing in here is this:
18 months and counting... until the 2008 Presidential Election.
Bush's approval rating is now in the low 30% range and Cheney's is at 16% -- a record low approval rating for a sitting VP.
Two thirds of US GDP is consumer spending and that spending was fuled by trillions of dollars taken out via a never before seen level of mortgage & home equity refinancing.
Given the Fed Rate hikes, that game is now ending... add to that, the fundamentals of a "0 savings rate" in America, along with flat income growth and no "real job" growth (lot's of $9 per hour jobs available)...combined with the hundreds of millions of dollars that will be sucked out of US Consumber spending as the minimum payment on credit cards has now been doubled (right after the new Bankruptcy Reform laws -- Whhodathunkit!?!?!), as adjustable consumer and mortgage rates begin to reset this spring ...and consumer spending is about to take a hit.
There's simply not equal income growth to replace the debt & credit leveraged binge that's kept the US Economy propped up since September 11th.
Also, the Fed's reflation has now unleashed inflation -- as seen in the speculative assisted ramp in commodities...along with the usual misallocation of capital created by Central Bankers that is hand delivered into the hands of globalist bankers (Whodathunkit?).
-- throw in a manipulated chokepoint on refining gasoline as we enter the peak driving season...and consumer spending is being set up for a very significant hit.
You can not suck trillions of dollars out of the hands of US consumers via energy costs, higher minimum credit card payaments and adjustable mortgage payment resets...without significantly impacting 2/3rds of the US Economy -- which is consumer spending.
Throw in the potential weapon of mass economic sentiment destruction that an Iran "event-crisis" could create...and the DOW sitting at 11,200 is looking like a bloated, fat, waddling duck with one big-assed bullseye on it's ass...
For the Crude Oil, Nat Gas and Energy Stock bubble.... it's patience and choose your "shot placement" time... there will be a huge correction in Crude Oil off of any one of the following three catalysts.
1. As the market begins to price in a Democratic victory in the 2008 Presidential Election (and to a lessor degree off of the results of the mid-term elections dead ahead).
2. US Economic slowdown...the Fed has now taken away the big "ATM Machine"...and given the alltime record low - "0%" savings rate in the US, along with record debt levels...the debt & credit led expansion will now start contracting.
3. The Iran Nuclear issue being settled -- (a huge hype job... Iran learned it's lessons well from North Korea) -- why didn't we bomb, or invade North Korea people ???
-- China.
And who is Iran's largest customer ?
-- China.
Who hold our debt trump card ?
-- China.
Who now controls the Panama canal ?
-- China.
Who owns and controls strategic deepwater American ports ?
-- China.
Who alone has the ability to create an instant death-spiral in the Greenspan Flatulent-Fiatmaximus -- US Dollar ?
-- China.
American taxpayers,their children and their childrens-children have seen the Big Oil Military Industrial Defense Complex -- of Bush/Cheney/Baker/CarlyleGroup/Goldman/BigOil/SaudiRoyals et al -- just suck Trillions of dollars out of the pockets of Americans and the US Treasury...cratering the purchasing power of the US Dollar and ramping deficits to unprecedented levels -- as George Bush has forever claimed his rightfull place in history via:
THE GREATEST THEFT IN WORLD HISTORY
From 1789 to the year 2000 -- it took 42 prior US Presidents and 211 years to accumulate $1.01 Trillion in government debt -- that rested solely upon the shoulders of U.S. Taxpayers.
But, it only took George W. Bush 4 years to nearly double US debt -- addding another mind-boggling $1.05 Trillion of government debt...that now rests not just upon the shoulders of U.S. Taxpayers...but, now upon the shoulders of their children...and their childrens-children.
That my friends... is both the greatest theft in the History of the World, but also the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world.
Big Oil get's billions of dollars in government subsidies, access to cheap, known assests on US Government Land...but, without any requirement to add refining capacity and end the choke-points to gouging the US consumer.
But it doesn't end with the windfall profits and government handouts to Big Oil as they soak billions of dollars per quarter away... it extends into the Military Industrial Defense Complex as well as into the administration of Billions of Tax Payer Dollars into the "sham" called the War on Terrorism in Iraq.
...of course, I'm a Bush-bashing, conspiracty theory chasing liberal now... as was Eisenhower ?
Do yourself a favor and read this in it's entireity - right now -- today:
eisenhower.archives.gov
...RFID implantable human chips (where's former US Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge working today people ?).
....Google search records and a Patriot Act where blue haired grandmothers get stripped searched -- but, yet we're cutting Border Agents where drugs and illegal immigration virtually run rampant thru open borders?
Frisk & strip-search Grandma at the airport for show, but let Truckloads of Drugs and illegal immigrants flow across the borders unchecked ?
The Military Industrial Defense Complex and Big Oil, along witht the globalist investment bankers like Goldman and the "black" Hedge Funds like the Carlyle Group -- which are <Whodathunkit x 10 loaded with former heads of the CIA, Pentagon and US Presidents...rake in billions off of the rape, pillage and destruction of the US Dollar currency, budget, pension system, jobs and economy of America.
The Bush-dynasty will go down as the greatest "magicians" in history... forget Harry Houdini, or David Copperfield.
All Bush had to do, was use a little misdirection via waving the abortion card in front of the religious right...and play the "Iraq WMD" terrorism card along with doing a little flag waving post September 11th...
Mission Accomplished indeed... just not in the way most Americans thought...
The US Taxpayers have just funded a $600 Billion Dollar transfer of wealth from thier pockets into that of Goldman, The Carlyle Group, Big Oil, the Saudi Royals et al...and that number will grow above $800 Billion before Bush's term is up.
For $200 Billion we could have completely funded the build out of the infrastructure necessary to bring the Canadian Oil & Tar Sands to production and delivery to the US -- which would have forever made North America -- truly energy independant!
$200 Billion and Energy INDEPENDANCE... verus $800 Billion, thousand of US Soldier Deaths and Energy DEPENDANCE ?!?!?!
18 months and counting...time to think outside the box -- as merely glancing at the polls is verification that their backs are now against the political wall as mismanged, arrogant debacle, after debacle unfolds. From thousands of FEMA Trailers sitting, rotting in the mud down in Hope Arkansas, to Cheney's drunken hunting trip, to ramping deficits and energy prices and a US Econonmy already mortgaged to the hilt.
re: the mid-term & 2008 Presidential Elections:
When is a rabid dog most dangerous ?
-- when they're cornered.
What's their only option left ?
What would it take to neck-snap America's attention away from the realities of bloated deficits, a collapsing currency, ramping inflation, jobs becoming America's main export, mismanagement of the Gulf Coast hurricane rebuilding efforts, Iraq collapsing into chaos, Iran flexing it's nuclear muscle, China turning the vice... ???
later,
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