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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (732722)3/17/2006 12:18:02 PM
From: DuckTapeSunroof  Read Replies (1) of 769670
 
Even Bear markets have sharp rallies upward (before resuming their secular decline). In fact, they are characterized by it.

(I would argue that the DOW and S&P have basically been in a broad trading range for several years now... bouncing between the top and bottom of their price channels.)

But, the call of 'Bear' or 'Bull' is often a point best left for dispute by the chartists --- and often depends upon the baseline that is considered.

If you are in the camp that considers the past few years (after the tech sell-off) a 'Bull' market... then I believe the mean and median average lengths of past 'Bull' markets would most likely lead you to conclude that we are in the later innings of this one --- much closer to the end then to the beginning.

Numerous other factors: the withdrawal by the Fed of the unprecedentedly HUGE surge of liquidity that has been sloshing around in the system since Y2K & the tech collapse, weakening Advance Decline lines, inflation in Producer Prices, twin federal budget and national trade deficits growing skyward, ...and now the beginning of bond competition with equities for the investor's capital --- all can be added to the previous argument that the *duration* of this advance is nearly up.

So, whether you believe we have been in a Bull market for equities these last few years... or that we have simply been witnessing a normal Bear market rally, is really beside the point, and mostly depends on the baseline you look at, and the definitions you use.

EITHER definition still leads to a reasonable conclusion that the day is late.
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