From Freethinkerkeywe on the FOOL
In the new issue of Newsweek, a map of Florida showed my county, Monroe County, losing the most residents in Florida over the last year. We lost 4-5% of our population year over year.
Mayor Sonny McCoy said the reason for so many people moving out was "higher insurance rates".
As I stated in a post I wrote last week, higher insurance rates are a new "dagger" in the housing bubble.
This is only the beginning. I had an elderly lady I know offer me and my girlfriend first crack at buying her house next year after she moves to a retirement home in North Carolina.
A new real estate website, Zillow, said her home is worth $600,000 range. In reality, she couldn't get $450,000 today for that house . . . and the prices are fast coming down. Zillow hasn't a real clue as to just how fast prices are coming down. Zillow can't tell you how many homes on the market are dropping their prices monthly just to get nibbles from buyers.
I know I keep harping on a quote that Bascom Grooms IV, a young, very likable real estate agent made last year in Feb 2005. He said, "You'll never again see a Key West house sell for less than $600,000." What is remarkable is how many houses and condos have dropped below the $400,000 mark for the first time in years. In fact, Mr. Grooms has several condos selling under his aegis for less than $400,000.
This is no longer a market for "speculators" and "investors". Those types are behind the 8 ball now . . . and its going to get much worse.
The insurance rates are the talk of the town now. Last year it was affordable housing for workers. Now, workers are looking at the insurance rates and thinking, "There is no way in hell I'll buy a Key West house at $500,000 with insurance costing my $900 a month."
Rates are skyrocketing disproportionately for some: a police officer I know has invited me to a party at his house on April 1st. He owns a house built with stronger building codes and built on stilts, 8 feet above ground. During Wilma, the water lapped at the bottom of his house's floor beams. He lost his car, motorcycle and truck. Yet his home sustained no damage, except to a few trees. His insurance went from $900 last year to $4600 this year, for an increase of 500%.
This is happening all over the Keys with some horror stories being told about people having decuctibles of $30,000 on top of $10,000 a year payments . . . meaning if your home sustains damage, are already in the hole $40,000 before you make the first repair.
An anquaintance, Brent Litch, from Key Haven, made this point in a letter to the editor of the Key West Citizen newspaper this past Sunday:
Keys should start insurance co-op
It was at the meeting of FIRM (Fair Insurance Rates in Monroe) at Horace O'Bryant School on March 1 that I really learned how badly we in Monroe County are being served by the various insurance entities that control premium rates and deductibles for wind and flood.
The citizens of Monroe County have been paying hundreds of millions every year in premiums to insurance companies that are little more than organized criminals who have been screwing us since they were formed.
It occurs to me that that money could be much better spent if we were able to become self-insured by forming the Conch Republic Property Insurance Co. My premium is over $10,000 with a $28,000 deductible. That comes to $38,000 for worthless insurance. I could fix a lot of damage to my house for $38,000. And that's just wind coverage.
We also need to become self sufficient for flood as well. In three to four years, there would be enough in the kitty to protect Monroe County from just about anything. And we could do it for a lot less than it's costing us now. Before long we could drastically lower rates and still have the same level of protection.
If we can get a state insurance charter, the mortgage companies will be happy. In the event that we suffer more hurricane loss, I would much rather deal with a local, communally-owned organization than wrestle the greased pig that is Citizens windstorm insurance.
Brent Litch
Key Haven
Please note that Brent is paying $10,000 just for wind insurance this year. I might look him up today and see what flood and homeowners are. If I get hold of him, I'll see what the current appraised price of his home is and I'll look into whether he suffered any flood damage during Wilma last year.
Reagardless, Brent's attitude is indicative of many homeowners down here who are seeing insurance rates triple and more.
What is head scratching about all this is an early story from the Key West Citizen said rates were going to go up on average by 60%, but even the Key West paper knows that was so low as to not even be considered "wishful thinking" any longer.
Some of the other ideas being thrown around by politicians:
1)Do not include in the Citizens Insurance pool of last resort any home worth $1 million.
2)Do not insure any house where the owner does not live in it at least 6 months out of the year.
In fact, here's another letter to the Key West Citizen by a nother angry citizen:
State windstorm insurance should be for residents
I am really perplexed as to why vacation homes of non-Florida owners are included in the state-owned and managed windstorm insurance program.
Is it necessary to subsidize this class of people and create another group of claimants that will affect the rates of all those Florida residents who are required to buy insurance from the state pool?
Seems to me that only Florida homesteaders should be allowed to be included in the state-managed and operated windstorm insurance as to limit the possible claims and payments to Florida residents. I feel that all the vacation home concepts need to be re-evaluated to see the impact it has on the rest of the community. First, it causes an extreme shortage of housing, and also an increase in cost of insurance to full-time residents.
Doesn't seem like any good news by this particular class of interlopers. Maybe a 10 percent per year luxury tax on vacation homes would help offset this social black hole. I'm all for it. Let's get it on the ballot!
Nick Anderson
So you see, insurance rates are making fence sitting homebuyers think, "I'll wait until the market really crashes." Insurance rates are also making current homeowners "slaves" to their homes. You have to have insurance on a home you owe money on. You can't get around it. The bank will not issue you a mortgage without insurance. It is against the law.
I dare say, before this is all over, many homes will have lost more than 50% of their value. I'm not kidding. We are on the way. Only fools are buying homes in Key West at this moment.
I've got some more personal observations about the Keys to pass on to all of you later this week . . . if I have time . . . but there is no doubt there is a real estate rout going on in this town with many old timers pulling up stakes and heading inland or to sunnier places south.
I have money saved and I am saving more every week. I look at the real estate market here and think, "Why do I want to buy any house and be forced to pay just in insurance alone more than what I pay for rent now?"
Renting is giving me loads of cash to dump into cash accounts, trading accounts and two Roth IRAs...
I think I'll be renting again next year, and not buying. Roatan, Nevis, Montserratt, Puerto Rico, Tobaggo, Nicaragua, certain Bahamian islands, Key West old timers are moving there too.
I've got my connections.
I am going to begin looking into becoming an ex-pat where land and housing is cheap. Key West can be my money making home, and I'll keep a home somewhere else. Right now, this is not a place where a person with a good mind for math is going to put down stakes. This is not a buyers or sellers market at this time. This is a time to sit on the sidelines and watch the fireworks.
I pity all those folks who bought homes last year on zero interest loans backed by a year 2 or year 3 ARM and now they are faced with these new outrageously expensive insurance bills.
Foreclosure City is coming up fast. |
