The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (56570)	3/22/2006 6:42:04 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (4) of 110194

Ork your reply to 1 and 3 are sort of contradictory. How? It's just possible the low end will outperform the high and middle end. It's indpendent of rates. But if rates continue higher all builders are going to be destroyed. I think initially (as in now) homies are following 10 yr treasuries but just as gold disconneted with the US$, homies will disconnect from treasuries. In fact, I see a distinct liklihood that mortgage rates themselves disconnect from 10 year treasuries. I assume you mean the homies continue down while bonds reverse up. As you and Heinz have pointed out so many times, it all depends on domestic demand. I really don't have a clue which way it's going to go. Will the dollar (and credit spreads) get destroyed which at least initially will require higher rates? Or will the domestic need for yield overpower it all? I don't have a clue. The one thing I do know is no matter which scenario takes hold, the homies are toast.

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