Hi Paul,
There is a finite market for semiconductor chips. Yes, new products
and innovations will require new styles of chips, but, there is more
functionality being built into the newest generations of chips. What
the implications of this are, is that fewer chips are necessary to do
more functions than in the past. For example, some of the newest
microprocessor chips coming out now have built in video processing,
soft modem capability, sound, fax, and soon ethernet built into just
1 chip. This eliminates the need for these additional support chips
and lowers the cost, overall, for the total functionality of the final
product. New digital cell phone chips will also incorporate multi-
functionality built into a single chip, which will also eliminate the
need for multi-chip phones, the price for these chips will be 1/4
to 1/2 as expensive as previous chips due to the improvements
in technology and yield enhancements as more chips are
manufactured at the 0.25u geometries using 8" and later 12"
wafers.
Once 12" wafers are being mass produced nearly all chips will
become commodities that are cheap since manufacturing costs
per chip will decrease 4x since there will be 4x chips produced
per 12" wafer compared to 8" wafer.
Yes, the world market will consume an increasing number of chips
as time passes, however, due to improvements in manufacturing
efficiency it may become so competitive,pricewise, that it will
be economically unfeasible for all but the giants in the industry to
manufacture chips which could limit the number of players (manufacturers) who purchase equipment. There will be a limit
caused by supply vs demand, that may occur within 3-5 years
once the newest 12" fabs are in full production and a chip glut
reduces prices to the point where it is not economically feasible
to manufacture chips and fabs start to close down.
Just my opinion.
BB |
