The analysts are all feeling pretty stupid from their downgrades last quarter. They completely misinterpreted the conference call, IMO, due to their short sighted, next 3-6 month mindset, and thus missed the possibility that this might be a good quarter. Now they have to wait for the conference call to confirm that this quarter will be sustainable, and isn't just due to the timing of the Frame release and good results from the start of ADBE's promotional campaign.
Stock goes to the mid 50s over the next 2-4 weeks, maybe sooner, unless there is a negative surprise in the conference call. One more good quarter, and it goes to the 60s, maybe better depending on how good, and how Postscript 3 products make up for the loss of HWP's Boise business. Don't forget that Postscript 3 products are just now ramping. By this time next year, there will be a lot of them, including a lot of high end printers, using it.
But the big question mark is, now that Frame is out, there won't be any upgrade releases of major products until next year sometime. So will the promotion program be enough to get substantial new business until the new cycle kicks in?
Sam |
