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Biotech / Medical : analysts and calls -- ML

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From: tom pope3/24/2006 10:21:32 AM
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BVF

Biovail Corporation (BVF, $26.63, C-2-7)
Downgrade to Neutral. Risk to Guidance from Early Generic Launches.
Upside Not Compelling Given Risks. BVF reported strong Q4/05, and
provided stronger-than-expected guidance for F2006. But we believe the
outlook may be at risk in the event of negative outcomes in pending patent
lawsuits relating to Wellbutrin XL. We are not equipped to predict
outcomes of patent litigation. However, accelerating entry of generics for
Wellbutrin XL to mid-2006 vs. mid-2007 negatively affects projected EPS
by $0.47 prior to expense reduction. Valuation does not justify a BUY,
particularly given the risks. We would revisit our rating based on the
outcomes of legal proceedings, potential settlements with generic
companies, and in-licensings/ acquisitions.
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