This article is worth reading, and might come under("No S*** Sherlock") Elite vs. Public Opinion
An Examination of Divergent Views on Immigration
December 2002
By Roy Beck and Steven A. Camarota
Download the .pdf version
Panel discussion transcript
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While it has long been suspected that public and elite opinion differ on the issue of immigration, a new poll provides the most compelling evidence yet that there is an enormous gap between the American people and "opinion leaders" on the issue. The survey also suggests that the gap between the public and elites has actually widened since the September 11 terrorist attacks.
This Backgrounder is based on the findings of a recent national poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations in May through July of this year. The Council is a non-profit policy organization that sponsors polls and events on a host of foreign policy issues. The Council has a long tradition of polling to find differences between the public and opinion leaders.
The polling of the public was based on 2,800 telephone interviews from across the nation. The council also surveyed nearly 400 opinion leaders, including members of Congress, the administration, and leaders of church groups, business executives, union leaders, journalists, academics, and leaders of major interest groups. (The full results of the survey can be found at worldviews.org This Backgrounder is the first detailed examination of the poll’s results on the issue of immigration.
* The results of the survey indicate that the gap between the opinions of the American people on immigration and those of their leaders is enormous. The poll found that 60 percent of the public regards the present level of immigration to be a "critical threat to the vital interests of the United States," compared to only 14 percent of the nation’s leadership – a 46 percentage point gap.
* The current gap is even wider than that found in 1998, when 55 percent of the public viewed immigration as a "critical threat," compared to 18 percent of opinion leaders – a 37 percentage point gap.
* The poll results indicate that there is no other foreign policy-related issue on which the American people and their leaders disagreed more profoundly than immigration. Even on such divisive issues as globalization or strengthening the United Nations, the public and the elite are much closer together than they are on immigration.
* When asked a specific question about whether legal immigration should be reduced, kept the same, or increased, 55 percent of the public said it should be reduced, and 27 percent said it should remain the same. In contrast, only 18 percent of opinion leaders said it should be reduced and 60 percent said it should remain the same. There was no other issue-specific question on which the public and elites differed more widely.
* The enormous difference between elite and public opinion can also be seen on the issue of illegal immigration. The survey found that 70 percent of the public said that reducing illegal immigration should be a "very important" foreign-policy goal of the United States, compared to only 22 percent of elites.
* Also with respect to illegal immigration, when the public was asked to rank the biggest foreign policy problems, the public ranked illegal immigration sixth, while elites ranked it 26th.
* The very large difference between elite and public opinion explains the current political stalemate on immigration. For example, supporters of an amnesty for illegal immigrants have broad elite support ranging from religious to business and union leaders. Normally elite support of this kind would lead to policy changes, but on this issue public opposition is so strong that it creates a political stalemate.
* Continued deep public dissatisfaction with current immigration policy indicates that candidates or political parties that advocate a reduction in immigration might reap a significant political benefit. This is especially true because it could be marketed as "anti-elite" and more in sync with the American people, a message that has traditionally been well received by voters.
* President Bush’s efforts to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants appear to be hurting him politically. While 53 percent of the public said his handling of foreign policy overall was excellent or good, on immigration only 27 percent said his handling of immigration was good or excellent; moreover, 70 percent rated Bush as poor or fair on immigration. the lowest rating he received on any foreign policy-related issue.
Article continued here: cis.org
Conclusion
The polling by the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs points to the likelihood that Congress looks to opinion leaders and not to the public for direction on immigration issues. It is for this reason that those who have been pushing for increased immigration have had some success in Congress since the September 11th terrorist attacks. However, Congress is not entirely unaware of the public’s apprehension over current immigration, as shown in this survey. As a result, there has been a good deal of political stalemate on the issue.
The enormous gulf between the public and elites on the issue indicates that the debate over immigration will continue to be characterized by stalemate. On an issue of such obvious importance as immigration it would be desirable if the country could come to some consensus on policy. This survey suggests that such a consensus is extremely unlikely. If anything, the evidence suggests that the gap between the American people and their leaders is growing. It is unclear how long immigration policy can remain so divergent from public opinion. It seems likely that at some point a politician or group of politicians will attempt to mobilize public support for a reduction in immigration. The evidence summarized in this Backgrounder indicates that if this were to happen, a candidate could expect very strong support from the public, but also very significant elite opposition from politically important groups such as the media, business, and academia, all of whom will play a significant role in shaping policy and the public discourse on the issue. |
