jfred, to me, it's not a question of if: <The US gets away with issuing those dollars only because of the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency. If that role ever slips....>
Some time ago I decided that it is a certainty. Not even a slight question. I'm just not sure when. I think absolutely within 30 years without a hint of a doubt. The US$ might then be a rump of a currency serving a good portion of Americans for tax accounting purposes or some cash for old-timers or something.
I would not be surprised in the slightest if the US$ and all other currencies have totally ceased to exist by then, [with perhaps a few exceptions - there are always one or two who slip away in the night].
Within 20 years I'd be surprised if there is much, if any residue left of the US$ or a lot of other currencies. I guess others will be ended well before the US$.
Within 10 years, the writing will be on the wall and a lot of market clearing and adjustment to the dawning reality will be well underway with consequent impact on Americans and others holding or dependent on US$ being the big deal it is today.
Within 5 years, I think we'll see the trend established, some media discussion, and some turbulence and maybe even frenzy.
Already, the infrastructure is passably developed and a prototype could be turned loose, though I think it's still a bit premature. Maybe another couple of years is needed.
Mqurice |
