'Netroots' Smell Victory in Special House Race
Randy "Duke" Cunningham's dramatic fall from grace opened up California's Republican-leaning 50th congressional district and a huge Republican field has scrambled for the chance to fill the relatively safe GOP seat. Democrats, on the other hand, are hoping President Bush's sagging poll numbers coupled with Cunningham's blatant corruption may be enough to give them an unexpected victory.
To win the April 11 special election outright, a candidate must receive "50% plus one" of the vote. Otherwise, the top vote-getters from each party square off in a June 6 runoff.
Francine Busby is the anointed Democrat in the race. The 55-year-old former Sunday school teacher and current trustee of the Cardiff School District Board won 37% of the vote against Cunningham in 2004 (John Kerry won 44% in the district). Ms. Busby faces a choice of whether to go all out and try to win the 50% in April versus husbanding her resources for the June runoff (she's a lock to be the leading Democrat). More and more, she appears to have decided to go for the outright win in two weeks.
Meanwhile, there are 14 Republicans in the race, but polls have consistently given only three candidates a legitimate shot at winning the pro-GOP vote: Brian Bilbray, Howard Kaloogian and Eric Roach. Mr. Bilbray is an ex-Congressman from the more Democratic 49th Congressional district who lost his job to Rep. Susan Davis in 2000 and is considered the establishment candidate. Mr. Kaloogian is a former state assemblyman (1994-2000) from within the district and is the leading movement conservative in the race. Mr. Roach, a Mormon, is a venture capitalist and political neophyte who appears to be making headway thanks to his ability to outspend his main rivals.
On Tuesday, KGTV-TV in San Diego released a poll showing that none of the candidates breaks the 50%-plus-one threshold. Ms. Busby, the Democrat, comes closest, at 45%. She was followed by the three leading Republicans: Mr. Roach at 14%, Mr. Kaloogian at 12% and Mr. Bilbray at 10%. The poll was especially good news for Ms. Busby's attempt to wrap up the race in the first round. Barely a week ago, a Datamar poll had her at 36%, but the left-wing netroots community led by MoveOn.org and Web sites like DailyKos have made a big push to help her win. Survey USA's Jay Leve, who conducted the KGTV poll, points out that Ms. Busby is pulling 53% among women. If she can increase the women's turnout just a couple of percentage points from his projected 46%, he says Ms. Busby has a good chance to get over 50%.
Can one of the Republicans hope to expand his share of the vote enough to stop her? It's up in the air. Mr. Bilbray appears to have no momentum and in a special election with a very low turnout may be hard pressed to get the 15% he would probably need to keep his hopes alive. Mr. Kaloogian, with his grassroots conservative support and endorsements from James Dobson, Steve Forbes and Rep. Tom Tancredo, looks to have an edge in getting his voters to the polls. Mr. Roach is the wildcard in the race. While he looks good in the latest poll, it is uncertain whether his money advantage will translate into the votes he needs on Election Day.
The irony, of course, is that Messrs. Kaloogian, Roach and Bilbray would each be a heavy favorite to beat Ms. Busby in a June runoff. But Ms. Busby appears to have a shot at pulling off an upset on April 11. A surprise Democratic win in two weeks would be seen, correctly, as a major warning sign for Republicans and could be the first tangible indication the GOP might be in real trouble in November.
-- John McIntyre, managing editor of
opinionjournal.com
A little Republican Corruption comes home to roost. |
