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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (184354)	3/31/2006 11:33:41 AM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (4) of 281500

I said al-Qaeda primarily aimed at SA. I don't disagree with you as to their goals. As to the huge supply of oil, I disagree with that as a power factor. 1) Brazil, China and India need more oil. Certainly China will not allow a take over by al-Qaeda. So short term oil is a problem for Europe, not the US since the US import is around 17% of total consumption. A simple adjustment of transport patterns would solve US dependence on ME oil. 2) The amount of oil available is diminishing and rapidly. Even if ME oil reserves last 20 years, and I don't think they will, the international economic power you claim is a fast diminishing one. Look at the reality of ME oil. It's influence is on the wane. 3) The projected reserves in SA may well be over estimated by as much as 50%. Similarly in other ME countries. Why do you think Iran wants nuclear power? They can see that the end is in sight for oil as an income source. Getting back to the caliphate concept. 1) The number of caliphate supporters are small but loud. 2) The number of moderate Muslims is large but suppressed by their own governments. This is a part of the Mossedeq syndrome that US FP suffers under. We support dictators who suppress their citizens. 3) Any positive indication from the US(Bush's nonsense not with standing) will generate optimism among these moderates. "Dude.. don't you think we want Bin Laden? Don't you think we're trying to find him and Zawahiri, as evidenced by the controversial Predator strike that killed a number of Zawahiri's closest aids?? But we can only do so much given teh constraints of the tumultuous status of Pakistan's social and political situation." We are tied down in Iraq and resources could be better used in Afghanistan. Cut the head off and the body dies. If it's a Medusa then use resources to cut all the heads off. Where ever they are. Iraq differs from Afghanistan in that the Iraqi population has always been oriented towards the west while Afghanistan has a history of tribal rifts going back for thousands of years and a non western attitude as is the case in northern Pakistan. That is why I disagree with you as to where the major front against al-Qaeda is. Let the Iraqis deal with the problem, they have a vested interest in getting rid of al-Qaeda and the terrorists. As to your harping on liberals and their plan, I'm trying to show why the present "plan" is wrong and what to do about it. Hasn't anything to do with liberal or conservative politics since it can not be realized given the present US attitude to oil consumption. Try and get out of the liberal-conservative box. One has to recognize that Iraq is about ME oil. That can be changed by reducing US dependence on ME oil. That can be done by reducing consumption. But that means that big oil loses. It means that Hummer(GM) loses. It means that the American "right" to use 25% of present production has to change. All of these things will happen, it is a question of when and how. So within that context, I'm perfectly willing to listen to more SPECIFICS about how bad a job the US is doing there, and how you would do things differently.

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