[Edited] @Cravey - Rev./Mosesmann
First, I truely had to laugh when I read the paper from
Mosesmann, first put the numbers in front so that a 10$ target makes
sense (0,5$ (2007) x20 = 10) and then write the story ...
But I'm much more worried about your revenue forecast for
Q1.
"
I am expecting AMD revenue to push close to the $1.5B range in revenue
"
We had discussed this quite often and AMD said flat to
slightly down, so I don't know, why you are not ruling a
15% QoQ increase out? When you ask me, thats really not
reachable!!! Q1 is the second weakest demand quarter in the
year and Q4 is the strongest, so a 15% rev. increase would
mean around 10% volume surplus and around 5% ASP gains.
The pricing was really very stable this quarter and with more
server and DCs we could expect additional ASP gains, I'm
going here in the 2-3% ballpark, take 1% here or there. Could
be 1% or also 4%, depends really on the mix, probably mostly
on the Sempron vs. A64 ratio.
But from where should all the volume numbers come from? I
know its really hard to track and we don't see, what the
OEMs overall are doing, so softer (overall) PC demand hasn't
to mean, that AMD "lost" volume, but when you ask me, it
would be really outstanding if AMD could hold volume numbers
stable QoQ. Q4 was awesome, don't forget this. When I have
this in my mind, I also come up to Hectors guidiance of "flat"
. It could be a small number more (0-5% rev. gain), but these
are my BEST-CASE Numbers up to date and I wouldn't really
surprised if Revenue also decreases slightly QoQ. Also could
imagine 0-5% here, so the avarage from both are around 2-3%
plus or 2-3% minus - I couldn't do it better. So the mosesmann
revenue forecast is to high and it would really surprise me,
if we would reach this EPS level with this revenue. I would
expect more, really more. I wrote here minimum 3 posts to
this topic, where I mentioned the crucial factors for Q1.
There are many and its really difficult to come to an EPS
number. I only go that far, that the market will be surprised
and I expect minimum of 35C and a very good Q2 guidiance.
Edit:
When the market sees this number (Q1 > 35C) and the good
guidiance which I expect, I find it really ridiculous, how
anyone could come up with a EPS under!!! 1,2-1,5$ (lowest
guess is 0,85$ now on Yahoo) for the 2006 year. 2007 would be
another topic and many factors has to be worked in, so 2007
is for me an "sentiment" number and everyone could place this
or that, thats clear, but to assume that Q1 will give the
highest EPS number in 2006 is ... is really laughable.
BUGGI |
