| BUGGI, et al: For the pure longs, the next few weeks are somewhat immaterial, as the longer term trend is very clearly bright. I have adulterated my large long position with some very short-term calls (April $40's), and have tried to average these down as their price has fallen. So for me and other risk-takers, the next few weeks are of very material interest. I appreciate Buggi's conservatism when it comes to Q1, and like others, am having a really hard time "reading" this quarter. If any reasonable fraction of the Intel shortfall has been flowing to AMD, the quarter will be glorious, but something tells me this is looking too far on the bright side. For one thing, if Q1 was already sold out from the beginning (as forecast by Hector's "flat to down"?), they couldn't pick up additional share even if available. There were also reports that worldwide CPU sales fell steeply in January (28% YoY according to the Inquirer: theinquirer.net. On another note, word is that March had a nice rebound. It's really tricky to call, and since I am thinking of picking up some lower strike price ($35?) calls to insulate me a bit on the $40's if we don't have a breakout earnings report, a better read is pretty critical. I appreciate the board's insights, and would love to continue to hear how fellow board members read the tea leaves. |
